Best Of
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
Indeed they did. But when opposing an unjustified attack you are not supposed to commit war crimes yourself. The actions of Hamas on 6 Oct are not justifications for the excessive actions of the IDF today.If you'd been paying attention you'd know that Hamas started the war and took a load of hostages.Maybe they just don't support the way in which the IDF is waging the war.So the people at Glastonbury support Hamas?Piers Moron is on the case...If you support one side in a war then you ipso facto support the death of enemy soldiers. I for one would like more Russian soldiers to die and do not see why I should not be able to express that opinion in public.
In Britain, we now jail the likes of Lucy Connolly for dumb, incendiary social media posts (that she deleted), but 1000s chant about killing people at a major music festival, live on our publicly funded broadcaster, and nobody seems to care. Outrageous double standard.
https://x.com/piersmorgan/status/1939037803406598577
"Death to the IDF" to me falls under freedom of speech.
In any case, have we forgotten that pop singers are supposed to be provocative?
Good to know.
Hamas is the only game in town, how else are Gazans supposed to defend themselves?
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
TSE's enduring hard on for SKS is the one of the weirdest things I've seen on PBDon't be low IQ.
Is it really just lawyer love?
This is a betting site, and I look at things rationally, I despise Donald Trump but saw he was likely to win in 2024.
Sir Keir is woeful but the way you and others latch onto every little thing about is repetitively dull and doesn't help gamblers.
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
My long walk today went through the herb garden at Hardwick Hall, and this is exactly the right time of year to visit. My photo quota.
The conical plants are Golden Hops, and the grey border plants are Curry Plant, I think.

The conical plants are Golden Hops, and the grey border plants are Curry Plant, I think.

MattW
5
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
Hello again pb.
Thanks for the comments on my rat photo earlier - very interesting.
An update on my adventure: following Greenhead, I cycled the Stanegate in a dense cloud and drizzle - saw the Sycamore Gap, where there was much rejoicing about something; on a drier day I'd have investigated - then descended to the Tyne Valley which is beautiful but much longer than I remember. Sadly @taz I overshot Wylam by about 2 miles, but found my way to the tidal Tyne at about 1705, therefore coast to coast in 5h53, including a 45 min lunch stop. Onwards to Newcastle in the pissing rain and arrived at Wetherspoons on the quayside where I was met by complete strangers like a conquering hero, and they insisted on buying me drinks for 2 hours and giving me money for whatever charity I'm raising for (fortunately me daughter is on a fundraising campaign).
It really is a wonderful city. I'd forgotten how ridiculously celebratory Novocastrians are on a Saturday night.
Reckon I've ridden about 76 miles today, which other pbers possibly do without blinking but is the longest bike ride I've ever had. Now waiting for the train home.
Thanks for the comments on my rat photo earlier - very interesting.
An update on my adventure: following Greenhead, I cycled the Stanegate in a dense cloud and drizzle - saw the Sycamore Gap, where there was much rejoicing about something; on a drier day I'd have investigated - then descended to the Tyne Valley which is beautiful but much longer than I remember. Sadly @taz I overshot Wylam by about 2 miles, but found my way to the tidal Tyne at about 1705, therefore coast to coast in 5h53, including a 45 min lunch stop. Onwards to Newcastle in the pissing rain and arrived at Wetherspoons on the quayside where I was met by complete strangers like a conquering hero, and they insisted on buying me drinks for 2 hours and giving me money for whatever charity I'm raising for (fortunately me daughter is on a fundraising campaign).
It really is a wonderful city. I'd forgotten how ridiculously celebratory Novocastrians are on a Saturday night.
Reckon I've ridden about 76 miles today, which other pbers possibly do without blinking but is the longest bike ride I've ever had. Now waiting for the train home.
Cookie
8
Re: Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers – politicalbetting.com
I was very heavily involved in what remains the UK's biggest fraud trial in 2012. It was brought by the CPS while Starmer was DPP.
The actual CPS lawyer dealing with it was appalling. At one point, the CPS tried repeatedly to break the law on disclosure and after I had firmly told them to bugger off, they made the City of London detective in charge of the investigation apologise to me for something which was entirely the CPS's fault. The CPS's lawyer's contribution to the trial was to sleep through most of it.
Doubtless Starmer was dealing with other stuff but my view of the CPS's competence and integrity was that it was a shambles. Still, at least they did something. The SFO declined to get involved in what was a serious fraud for reasons which remain inexplicable and my subsequent experience of them showed them to be even more incompetent than the CPS. The City of London police were, by contrast, pretty effective.
The actual CPS lawyer dealing with it was appalling. At one point, the CPS tried repeatedly to break the law on disclosure and after I had firmly told them to bugger off, they made the City of London detective in charge of the investigation apologise to me for something which was entirely the CPS's fault. The CPS's lawyer's contribution to the trial was to sleep through most of it.
Doubtless Starmer was dealing with other stuff but my view of the CPS's competence and integrity was that it was a shambles. Still, at least they did something. The SFO declined to get involved in what was a serious fraud for reasons which remain inexplicable and my subsequent experience of them showed them to be even more incompetent than the CPS. The City of London police were, by contrast, pretty effective.
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
Needless red lines?Not unreasonable. Tho I would put Starmer equal last with Truss. And I’d have May next last - she was a catastrophe with her needless red linesAs I posted on the last thread, I’ve given up on Starmer.Wrapping up any money with 3 years is rarely if ever a good move unless you have infinite money. Even betting on winners of next seasons EPL isn't an attractive prospect, when you could make a lot more bets inbetween now and then.What you can bet on is Starmer being awful. Surely the worst prime minister of our times
However he is better than his three predecessors, which tells you how bad those predecessors were.
Right now I have him below May in my list of post 1979 PMs.
1. Thatcher
2. Blair
3. Major
4. Cameron
5. Brown
6. May
7. Starmer (new entry)
8. Sunak
9. Johnson
10. Truss
They were the red lines Vote Leave campaigned on.
Re: If you’re betting on the 2028 White House race take note – politicalbetting.com
Phew!For LOLs I might just change Leon's username to Leon_Voted_For_Starmer
A "look squirrel" thread header, to throw those with Starmer Derangement Syndrome off the scent.
Oh and first on this thread like (edit) @Leon who will be the first to go in studs up on Starmer.
Re: Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers – politicalbetting.com
Release the sausages was an immensely funny misspeakStarmer’s car had a flat tyre on the day of the ‘Sausages’ gaffe, so it’s totally understandable
Island of strangers was planned, and is now being lied about
Who would hire this faulty robot as their lawyer?
isam
7
Re: Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers – politicalbetting.com
Some people aren't cut out to be Prime Minister.Politicians are people, some people react differently to the same events.Mrs T managed to give a speech in Brighton the day she escaped death, and her friends were killed, in the Brighton bombing. Obviously Starmer would have been upset by what happened at his old home, but surely that doesn’t mean he wouldn’t have read the speech before giving it? He’s not Ron BurgundyAs has been pointed out, the speech was made hours after somebody tried to burn his family members alive, which was second such fire related to Starmer.He claims he can't even read his own fucking speechWe know from Currygate and Freebiegate that Starmer knows precisely where the lines are drawn and how to stay just on the right side of them, and from Partygate how to oust Prime Ministers who step over them. So yes, I'd expect Starmer's car use to have been wholly within the letter if not the spirit of tax law.Do we have any evidence it was? Lets face it mp's and high muckety mucks seem to get away without paying a lot of shit the rest of us are taxed on frankly.....this is a man with a tax free pension from being dpp for fucks sake...you really think he was paying tax on this perk?And we know that aspect of the expense wasn’t taxed?Not though from home to home office...that is taxableIndeed, any company can offer transportation for their employees.HMRC is not the authority on how public or private sector companies manage executive travel.Why does he not travel under hmrc rules for travel that applies to all companies?As I understand it, he had to travel a lot inside the UK and the car was to facilitate that. No different I’d suggest to what I guess a Cabinet Minister has access to.What did @StillWaters mean by his mother’s observation that Keir Starmer had an “interesting approach to money?”Likes a freebie. When he was DPP he charged the taxpayer for a chauffeur driven car to take him to work and back when it was 20 mins on the tube
I think Keir is very boring, very timid.
But can we please accept too that he’s that quite rare thing in British high office: a lower middle class striver.
The last one was John Major. And before him, basically nobody.
His attention may have been elsewhere.
Re: Robert Jenrick’s secret weapon: being a lawyer as the country loves lawyers – politicalbetting.com
That sounds like a comment straight off of ConHome.The Conservatives *are* the real thing. The only reason Reform exists at all is because the Tories have been infested with Lib Dems who ran an aggressive campaign (and still are) to cleanse the party of any right-wing thought and turn it into the social democratic party: blue team. It is a farce that the same weasels now turn round and say 'we shouldn't ape reform'.I always thought Badenoch would be useless, but she is the right choice if the only alternative is Jenrick. (Tory MPs- you are culpable here). He is just too dodgy personally, although I do recognise his strengths as you've outlined.Yes exactlyIndeed: Jenrick could rescue the Conservatives. He's telegenic, vigarous, youthful (without appearing to still be an undergraduate), and can appeal to at least some Reform supporters, without scaring off traditional Conservatives.For gods sake tell them to choose Jenrick. He’s your only hope. The only Tory with ideas and vigour and chutzpahJenrick would take more votes from Farage than StarmerI predict even Starmer’s head to head performance will crater over time. Indeed it will get so bad he will step downThat's why I said head-to-head.This is not actually trueAnd yet, they still get their name engraved on the trophy.I think I was one of the first to spot that he was a diabolical combination of uncharismatic berk and sociopathic liar.When Johnson saw Walter Cronkite's damning report from Khe Sanh, he apparently said "if I've lost Cronkite I've just lost middle-America". If Starmer has lost John Rentoul, it really is all over.When is Starmer going to lose you?
https://x.com/dpjhodges/status/1938873634850001395?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q
The truth is there are fewer Labour supporters under Starmer than there have been for years. This was so even at the time of the last election. The right splitting between Tory, Reform and Stay at Home and a quirk of our Electoral system just gave Labour spinners the opportunity to pretend Sir Keir was really popular.
Think I’ve said this before, but it’s like a team winning the Premier League on 57 points by winning every home game 1-0, losing every away game 5-0 while every other match in the season was a draw. They’d win the league by 18 points, and that could be spun as some kind of impressive feat if you ignored the fact they’d lost half their matches, had a negative goal difference and won the league with the lowest points total of any champions in history.
Two things can be true at once. One is that Starmer is not a Great PM. The reason that Starmer Fans never popped up to explain his poor polling is that there aren't (m)any.
The other is that the options proffered by other parties are obviously, visibly even worse. See the head-to-head polling on preferred PM; SKS wins each one fairly comfortably, despite everything. But "none of the above/someone else" generally does even better.
"Vote Starmer. He'll have to do, because the others are even worse." Not an inspiring slogan, but it's won once and may well win again. All those who would like something else have to do is find something inspiring and credible to put up against him as an alternative. It's that simple, but it also seems to be that impossible.
C4’s Dispatches about Farage by Fraser Nelson had a Survation poll where Farage topped the list as preferred PM
No one scored highly. But Farage scored highest
Reform and Farage do have the biggest single slice of the electoral pie right now. But they are the second choice of very few. See the polling by YouGov;
Labour may be in a lacklustre second place in the voting intention polls, and suffering from low approval ratings, but when the public are offered the choice of Keir Starmer or Nigel Farage as prime minister, the incumbent holds a commanding lead over the challenger by 44% to 29%.
https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/52251-who-would-be-the-best-prime-minister-may-2025
Without a decent wedge of "I don't like X, but I want to stop Y" votes, Reform are currently on "not enough". FPTP has always been a mixture of positive and negative votes, and having five parties turns that effect up to 11.
Moreover the Tories are inevitably going to replace Badenoch. If they have the sense to install Jenrick - energetic, clever, ruthless, tiny, good at social media - he could also prosper against the lifeless pathetic Sir Keir Traitor
If you choose cleverly or stride or whatever you are accepting terminal decline and irrelevance
He’s the only one that makes you sit up and think OK perhaps he will do something. Maybe I’ll give them another shot
He’s proved that with Jenrickvision. The fact he alienates the lefty centrist dad Lib Dem Tories is an ADVANTAGE. They are the people who will lead the Tories into oblivion - they’ve already taken them halfway there
The other weakness to Jenrick is - if he's copying Reform, why not just vote for the real thing? And by fishing from the same pool he loses the centre without necessarily gaining anything in return.
If I was a Conservative I would be utterly depressed. Instead I'm watching with amazement as the most successful political party ever falls apart. I would laugh but the alternative is Farage and the chancers in Reform, and I never thought I would say this, so the Conservative party needs to survive somehow. Don't ask me how they do it.
As if the biggest problem the Tories have right now is how right wing to be?
They f****d up on protecting our borders. They put us through years of Brexit psychodrama for no discernible benefit whatsoever. The water industry is f****d. Our railways are f****d. The housing market is f****d. The health service is on its knees, many local councils are heading for bankruptcy, the justice system and prisons are in crisis, our schools are falling apart. Levelling up came to nothing, HS2 is a shambles, low level crime was overtly ignored. And despite all the cuts the budget wasnt balanced and we remain as much in debt as ever. They even failed on defence.
It doesn’t matter how right wing you are if nothing you do ever works. Except pandering to pensioners and lining the pockets of Tory grifters.
IanB2
6



