Best Of
Re: When will Rachel Reeves cease to be Chancellor? – politicalbetting.com
There are too many Labour politicians who have been net recipients of government taxation/spending all their lives.But who would be better?Are we going to have to wait until October or November every year of this parliament wondering how she's going to make our shit sandwich even bigger?This is a key point - investment has dried up. To be fair to Reeves it isn't just her, it dried up before Labour took over. And its in every industry. It's been fascinating watching north sea industry leaders aghast at "drill baby drill" - that is the opposite of what they want. Planned, deliverable, profitable investment over a long period of time, with stable politics giving a platform they trust putting money into.
The uncertainty it drives into the economy and investment for months on end is criminal. And hurts UK Plc.
This is crazy. The UK economy has stalled completely, and the never ending shit show cycle makes it worse.
You're an investor. The UK has had 6 Prime Ministers and 8 Chancellors in 10 years. With wild policy swings in that time. Sometimes week to week. Why would you invest here? We need stability. Leaving Reeves in place brings stability to the ver changing cycle but in this case it is stability as the ship sinks. She needs to go.
As far as I understand it, the internal pressure in Labour is that she isn't borrowing and spending enough.
It's quite quite mad.
And too many Labour politicians who know too many people who have been net recipients of government taxation/spending all their lives.
The mindset develops that being a net recipient of government/spending all your life is 'normal' and that the net contributors are the unimportant outliers.
Re: When will Rachel Reeves cease to be Chancellor? – politicalbetting.com
But who would be better?Are we going to have to wait until October or November every year of this parliament wondering how she's going to make our shit sandwich even bigger?This is a key point - investment has dried up. To be fair to Reeves it isn't just her, it dried up before Labour took over. And its in every industry. It's been fascinating watching north sea industry leaders aghast at "drill baby drill" - that is the opposite of what they want. Planned, deliverable, profitable investment over a long period of time, with stable politics giving a platform they trust putting money into.
The uncertainty it drives into the economy and investment for months on end is criminal. And hurts UK Plc.
This is crazy. The UK economy has stalled completely, and the never ending shit show cycle makes it worse.
You're an investor. The UK has had 6 Prime Ministers and 8 Chancellors in 10 years. With wild policy swings in that time. Sometimes week to week. Why would you invest here? We need stability. Leaving Reeves in place brings stability to the ver changing cycle but in this case it is stability as the ship sinks. She needs to go.
As far as I understand it, the internal pressure in Labour is that she isn't borrowing and spending enough.
It's quite quite mad.
Re: The Danny Kruger effect – politicalbetting.com
An anecdatum: just had a conversation with a colleague, who is quite stressed about LTR changes. She’s Malaysian, but has lived in the UK all her adult life – i.e. ten years or so. She has been asked in the past why she doesn’t just get British citizenship – she never has done yet because she would need to forfeit her Malaysian citizenship in order to do so. She hasn’t done this in the past because she’s had no need, but she’d be nervous about doing so in the future in the case of a Reform government because if Reform are capable of cancelling ILR she reasons they’d be capable of rejecting the citizenship of those who had moved here – which would, because she’d have had to turn down her Malaysian citizenship, render her stateless.
Quite aside from the sympathy I feel for her as a person, I can’t imagine this is the sort of outcome Reform are trying to achieve. (Aside from a slight accent and her Chinese features, you wouldn’t think she was anything but British – culturally she is clearly entirely non-alien. In fact, the most culturally incongruous thing about her is she has a quote from a psalm slotted into her phone.)
Quite aside from the sympathy I feel for her as a person, I can’t imagine this is the sort of outcome Reform are trying to achieve. (Aside from a slight accent and her Chinese features, you wouldn’t think she was anything but British – culturally she is clearly entirely non-alien. In fact, the most culturally incongruous thing about her is she has a quote from a psalm slotted into her phone.)
Cookie
5
Re: When will Rachel Reeves cease to be Chancellor? – politicalbetting.com
WTF is the Today programme doing leading with the Trump balls about paracetamol and vaccines?
It’s effectively a domestic US story, it’s not a UK story or a global story. They aren’t just saying he’s been an idiot then listing all his weird conspiracy theories/bad medical knowledge which will just give extra platforms and arguments to the idiot anti-science mob here.
The fact that they are giving it such massive coverage will allow the crazies to push these crazy ideas more due to the profile as now more people will half hear arguments in the background without deep counter arguments from people who actually know what they are talking about.
Someone senior at the BBC needs to explain why they are running this as top story.
It’s effectively a domestic US story, it’s not a UK story or a global story. They aren’t just saying he’s been an idiot then listing all his weird conspiracy theories/bad medical knowledge which will just give extra platforms and arguments to the idiot anti-science mob here.
The fact that they are giving it such massive coverage will allow the crazies to push these crazy ideas more due to the profile as now more people will half hear arguments in the background without deep counter arguments from people who actually know what they are talking about.
Someone senior at the BBC needs to explain why they are running this as top story.
boulay
16
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
I think there is no statistically significant risk of taking paracetamol in pregnancy. It is important not to be ambiguous about stating this.Of course, it's also entirely possible that illness/pain is correlated with autism, and people who are sick/in pain are more likely to take paracetamol.That's not *quite* true; it found a very minor correlation that is not statistically significant, and may simply be chance. The children of mothers who took acetimponephien were about 0.2 percentage points more likely to be autistic than those who didn't (albeit once you controlled for siblings, even that minor correlation largely disappeared.)Christ, the Mail have got the paracetemol/autism thing on their front page. I'm sure their article will get round to the medical evidence but the "just asking questions" thing is just so hideously irresponsible.This massive Swedish study found no connection.
Expect a big increase in stomach ulcers as people switch to ibuprofen.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2817406
Keep taking the pills.
It *might* be the case that there's a tiny increased risk of autism from taking paracetamol, but it certainly doesn't *cause* autism.
There is a definite risk both to mother and child of not treating fevers in pregnancy and childhood. Leaving children and mothers to be to suffer without pain relief is just cruel.
Foxy
5
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Pretending Joe Biden was okay as a candidate has resulted in this.No.
"Trump links paracetamol use with autism"
"Trump: Avoid hepatitis vaccine until children are 12"
"Spread childhood vaccines over five years, says Trump"
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/09/22/trump-autism-announcement-watch-live/
That's what comes of assuming Trump was the superior candidate.
Stop excusing him and his voters.
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Actually, I think there are things that could be done relatively easily, in particular around criminal justice (i.e. reclaim the streets) and planning reform. (The latter of which would go a long way to kick starting economic growth.)Get rid of Natural England, get rid of the retained EU law. Say goodbye and please don't stay in touch to their Stalinist stranglehold on British life.
Getting rid of retained EU law is a good example of why parties who promise the moon on a stick, often fail.
T. May when faced with the problem of how to separate EU and UK law decided there wasn't the bandwidth within government to separate the two (very different) legal systems so rolled EU law over into UK law. The idea was to unpick it over a period of time when it could be done at leisure. It hasn't.
In looking at the present government, they promised 'mission-led' government. The five missions, each with associated end goals, are:Already these missions are in serious trouble as life comes at you fast. So the missions are looking questionable.
- Kick-start economic growth
- Make Britain a clean energy superpower
- Take back our streets
- Break down barriers to opportunity
- Build an NHS fit for the future.
The same would apply to any future government as besides their manifesto commitments, they also are bound by the promises of previous governments as enshrined in the legislation passed. So part of time, if not most, will be trying to undo the spaghetti that is UK law with all the interrelatedness with treaties and international relations. Those with little self-control can't wait for the changes and complain when change is not instantaneous viz Brexit.
It will take many parliaments to make meaningful changes in UK law including the drag that inherited EU law on our institutions. All we can do is sit and wait for the changes we want to appear, hopefully in your lifetime. If it seems like Groundhog day, it probably is.
rcs1000
5
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Still, at least we now know that paracetamol is rock solid safe.I took the maximum dose every day for 4 years after a car crash in North Carolina, and look at me now. Perfectly normal. Just posting to a political betting discussion forum late into the evening, like all normal people do.
bondegezou
11
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
Drones now reportedly spotted in Stockholm, aswell.It's the Rapture of course.
According to some of the flightradar geeks, a Swedush Awacs aircraft is up in the air and sniffing about to see what's going on.
Starts in Scandinavia cos they're Blondies.
Re: Your regular reminder that 2 plus 2 doesn’t always equal 4 – politicalbetting.com
This comment misses the point. Parliament is sovereign and can legislate freely. However any government as it starts a ministry has a country to run. The gigantic legal infrastructure under which it is run - from law relating to murder to planning applications for Heathrow Airport - is already in place as they begin, and has been in continuous and uninterrupted organic development from parliament and courts since the reign of Henry II (r 1154-1189). Government is absolutely bound by it, unless and until it legislates to change it. Lots of changes are always urgent, as there is so much of it to sort. Political opportunism requires still further worthless bits of law making. Parliamentary time is finite, and MPs are mostly quite dim about the law. Vast amounts of legislation exists mostly to give lawyers opportunities to challenge, quite properly, any government decision. It will be fascinating to see what happens when a Reform government discovers that all this is quite hard, unless of course you abolish the separation of powers, the rule of law, and govern by dictat, as is happening across the pond.Rubbish. A parliament cannot bind its successor.Get rid of Natural England, get rid of the retained EU law. Say goodbye and please don't stay in touch to their Stalinist stranglehold on British life.
Getting rid of retained EU law is a good example of why parties who promise the moon on a stick, often fail.
T. May when faced with the problem of how to separate EU and UK law decided there wasn't the bandwidth within government to separate the two (very different) legal systems so rolled EU law over into UK law. The idea was to unpick it over a period of time when it could be done at leisure. It hasn't.
In looking at the present government, they promised 'mission-led' government. The five missions, each with associated end goals, are:Already these missions are in serious trouble as life comes at you fast. So the missions are looking questionable.
- Kick-start economic growth
- Make Britain a clean energy superpower
- Take back our streets
- Break down barriers to opportunity
- Build an NHS fit for the future.
The same would apply to any future government as besides their manifesto commitments, they also are bound by the promises of previous governments as enshrined in the legislation passed. So part of time, if not most, will be trying to undo the spaghetti that is UK law with all the interrelatedness with treaties and international relations. Those with little self-control can't wait for the changes and complain when change is not instantaneous viz Brexit.
It will take many parliaments to make meaningful changes in UK law including the drag that inherited EU law on our institutions. All we can do is sit and wait for the changes we want to appear, hopefully in your lifetime. If it seems like Groundhog day, it probably is.

