Best Of
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
One caused by the other? Or both symptoms of a depressing existence?I just ran an analysis, and it staggering how strong the correlation between alcoholism and suicide is in the US (outside Utah).FPT: Francis Urquart said about Utah: "The stat I remember (I don't know if it is still true) SLC, some of the highest academic achievement levels in the whole of the US, one of the highest suicide rates."Looking at that map, I think (with the exception of Utah) the strongest correlation is probablty with alcoholism rates.
Here's the data: https://www.cdc.gov/suicide/facts/rates-by-state.html
At a quick glance, what I see is that states with harsh winters tend to have higher suicide rates -- but I would need to see more data before I was certain of that correlation.
I'm always wary of American figures for alcoholism. What Americans conisder problem drinking is what Europeans consider a quiet Thursday.
Cookie
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Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
Perhaps I'm reaching here, but I doubt if those who are applauding are the representatives of liberal democracies.Craig Murray jumping the sharkO wad some Power the giftie gie us
'@CraigMurrayOrg
A day I shall never forget.
Speaking at the UN in Geneva in favour of Scottish Independence, I stated that the UK is a force for evil in the world.
And people from all over the globe interrupted with spontaneous applause'
https://x.com/CraigMurrayOrg/status/1968720543416287530
To see oursels as ithers see us!
It wad frae mony a blunder free us,
An' foolish notion.
The kinds of states that Craig Murray admires are the places that people escape from, rather than escape to.
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Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
@RachelMoiselle
I feel like anyone who thought Corbyn was competent enough to run a country should perhaps be engaging in some self-reflection today.
https://x.com/RachelMoiselle/status/1968972480166383705
I feel like anyone who thought Corbyn was competent enough to run a country should perhaps be engaging in some self-reflection today.
https://x.com/RachelMoiselle/status/1968972480166383705
Scott_xP
6
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
We're in a proper bloody mess. I'm sticking with the fundamentals being broken:Some of it is debt interest, but mostly it's just payroll, welfare and pensions.What's the most alarming thing to me is that 2025 looks like it will have higher borrowing than 2021 which was a full pandemic year where tax receipts were down and we had huge subsidy schemes running. Labour have, in just one year, complete blown the budget to the extent that we're going to borrow more than when the government was paying millions furlough money.Where is all the extra borrowing going? NHS, debt interest, ?
It's a complete shit show, Liz Truss in slow motion.
Cost of living crisis means less cash circulating which kills growth
Public services are simultaneously vastly expensive and delivering crap service
Society is fraying at the edges
Lets start with the cost of living - two massive drivers are energy and housing. We can't immediately fix housing - we lack both the workforce and the bricks to build sufficient housing even if people could afford to buy them. But we could declare war on the problem to at least get started.
We can do something about energy. Our leccy bills are absurdly high because we almost entirely set the price on gas, and as we have minimal storage its the spot price. Despite only using gas a quarter of the time for actual generation, it sets the price all the time. So do as Spain did and decouple. Easier to do outside the EU. Set the price based on what we are actually using for power generation and bills drop instantly. Which makes *everything* cheaper.
Starmer and the team are rabbits in the headlights.
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
I still haven't gotten over the comment a Labour supporting friend who works in the energy sector made about Ed Miliband's sting as Energy Secretary.He's absolutely bloody useless.Ed M's ambition and persistence, sticking around at the top of the party after defeat and still hunting for the top job, demonstrates why he had 10x more leadership skills than David.That kind of talk doesn't help my bet!
He's yesterday's msn though, he needs to let it go.
So in with a decent chance.
He's got the ideological entrenchment of Jeremy Corbyn and the competence of Chris Grayling.
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
I was a firm believer in nurture over nature until I had kids.Yes, probably too much rigidity on what the 'right' approach is, and of course parents are bombarded with thoughts on what is right or not, which is a recipe for second guessing trouble.IMV it depends on the kid. Some kids are very self-reliant early, and other kids need more help. And it can vary not just from kid to kid, but also within a kid: one kid may be very able to sort out homework and schoolwork, but also be able to utterly lose track of time when out alone. Support them where (and when) they need support. It's a fine line.Yes, it reminds a bit of the somewhat romanticised view of past childhood where kids might be out for hours at 8 years old with parents no idea where they were, vs parents terrified of a teenager going alone to the local shop or something and helicopter parenting. Has to be a balance surely.There is a growing body of evidence that "over-parenting" is part of the youth mental health crisis.I think it might enable more over-parenting, if parents are so inclined. I doubt I'll be going onto the portals every morning and afternoon to see if he's in school, for instance, but some may. And for the first few weeks I may check each weekend to see what homework needs doing. But if he manages to do it without me, I'll probably stop doing that. He needs to learn more independence and self-dependence as he grows older.In other news, my son starting secondary school has been a little bit of an eye-opener on the way education has changed in the near-35 years since I left school.I appreciate that this is how the world is now, and Medical Students wander round with iPads much the same.
The school gives every child an iPad (*). But as parents, we get web access to his due homework, and the grades for completed homework. His attendance, twice a day. His full timetable and teachers for each class, his behaviour, and any detentions. Even what he chose for dinner.
This seems massively more information, and much more immediate, than my parents got from my schools.
Whether it improves grades or not is a different matter...
(*) Which we pay for, obvs.
Surely an essential part of parenting is letting go, and letting kids have some private life, make their own mistakes, learn the consequences of not doing homework on time etc. It all looks open to way too much over parenting to me.
Yes, there may be negatives. But only if you use it in such a way. Otherwise, it may be useful information.
https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9811893/#:~:text=For example, an overparenting parent,on behalf of their child.
I am sure that parental neglect is an even bigger problem too. Getting the balance right of letting go, but being a safe loving haven is quite a challenge.
Independence was not much of a choice for many parents previously, of course. My poor mum certainly couldn't keep an eye on 4 kids by herself whilst working full time. Had some upsides and some downsides.
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
Ed Miliband, just about the only minister with ideas, the problem being that every one of them makes the country worse off.
Sandpit
14
Re: My 100/1 tip on Ed Miliband is looking good – politicalbetting.com
Subsidise projects that need a natural gas supply for the next 30 years while simultaneously blocking the development of new supplies of natural gas.
That's EdM for you.
That's EdM for you.
Re: Why you shouldn’t sign up to Corbyn’s new party – politicalbetting.com
If it hadn’t been for Lord Alli, Sue Gray, Morgan McSweeney, Louise Haig, Rushunara Ali, Mike Amesbury, Angela Rayner, Peter Mandelson, and Paul Ovenden letting him down, I think Sir Keir would’ve been doing alright
isam
5
Re: Why you shouldn’t sign up to Corbyn’s new party – politicalbetting.com
As the sun set I stood briefly to salute the end of another day in england's great river journey, the ice cubes in my glass of victory gin jostling for a last look at the fading light before the Sardinian lemons floated to the surface.Perhaps he'll be employed by the regime, writing Farage eulogies for the masked men to recite at sunrise.No it is not.This is goodTrigger warning for @TSEAgain, they're just copying MAGA.
FFS.
I thought you got all misty eyed about the honest toil of writing, in freedom, some scratchings for the Knapper, or liked to wander around London and enjoy the young as they cavort and mingle in simple pleasures free from the watchful eye of some guy with a mask and a gun.
Reform will bring this to England. They are not your friend.
It was then, as the first tears rolled down my face yet again over the astonishing victory of our Nigel against all the odds that I realised I was an hour late for a flight to Obscuria Land and HR terminal 5 might not have kept a further gin on ice for me. Hurriedly I returned to my flat where it was difficult to find the required luggage and passport due to everything being painted black or midnight blue.
And yet, despite these travails, I think Nigel's first months in office have been truly outstanding.
It has been such a triumph that sometimes I can even forget I voted for Labour in 2024.




