Best Of
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
@nytimes.comThe impression it all gives me at the moment is that nobody at all is safe in the USA. Very sad to watch.
A kidney transplant specialist and professor at Brown University’s medical school has been deported from the U.S., even though she had a valid visa and a court order temporarily blocking her expulsion, according to her lawyer and court papers.
Good morning, everyone

5
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
@illdottore.bsky.social
I dunno man, if the WH can point to people from Latin America and say "gang member," and point to people from the Arab world and say "terrorist" or "antisemite," and those designations lead directly to detention or worse, I think we have to acknowledge we're in a pretty bad place.
I dunno man, if the WH can point to people from Latin America and say "gang member," and point to people from the Arab world and say "terrorist" or "antisemite," and those designations lead directly to detention or worse, I think we have to acknowledge we're in a pretty bad place.

5
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
The problem began with the legislature stopping legislating. So we got to the point that the Federal Government (under Obama) was suing to prevent states enforcing *Federal* laws that the Executive Branch didn't like.There is a difference. Back then the phrase was a headline by the Daily Heil. Now? Official US government policy.Where have I heard "judges enemy of the people" before?It seems pretty clear that the mission is to get rid of as many illegal aliens as possible. And as the definition of “illegal alien” now includes American citizens should we be surprised that things like this happen?CNN report on the Brown Univ deportation case, mentioned above. It seems to me that UK media, including BBC, are giving scant attention to the internal USA political crisis, as opposed to the international dimension, though there is (for the moment) lots of USA media/social media covering it. But in fact this USA takeover by crooks is potentially the biggest story for years.Their is attention from ex-BBC figures - such as Katty Kay, on the Rest is Politics US. Though personally I'm not a huge fan of that, I listen from time to time.
https://edition.cnn.com/2025/03/17/us/brown-university-doctor-deported-hnk/index.html
Has anyone listened to coverage on the BBC World Service? They have the relevant experience of reporting on authoritarian and third world regimes.
Valid visa? Check. Court order banning removal? Check. Has she been removed? Check.
The court? Likely run by traitors, best ignore.
There are still a few people making excuses for the Trump regime. Apparently woke / liberals are the threat to America. But it’s ok, they’re deporting the other people. Except as many have already discovered, Trump’s madness will have a direct negative impact on them.
Ignorance was one of William Beveridge’s five giants. He was referring to the lack of education many suffered. Now? People get the education that past generations aspired to. But are kept deliberately ignorant by an elite who wants them to know only what they are told, rather than an understanding of reality.
Don’t Look Up…
So the courts became the new legislature. Which sounds nice, if you are progressive lawyer. My New York relatives thought this was great.
Then the Tea Party (and later MAGA) types realised that what you need to do is take control of the process of appointing judges from the ground up. Fill all the junior appointments with like minded people - they will filter up. Then only vote for politicians who will "Deliver Our Judges".
Even if the Democrats win a landslide in 2026 and the Presidency in 2028, they will now be fighting a system that is designed against them.
The warning for the UK is that the Executive needs to execute, the Legislature needs to legislate and the Judicial, judge. One part trying to use the courts for political cover and triangulation is a disaster.
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
The mistake here is thinking that Judges are trying to circumvent anything. The Judge is the person who applies the law, and here a case has been raised that Trump & Co are not following the law - so the Judge's role is to rule on the case in front of the Court.Yup, more than anything else, this will make the justice system look ridiculous that there are judges attempting to circumvent the deportation of 200 highly dangerous gang members.Yes: Stephen Miller and the White House staff are being smart. They are disobeying a court order on an issue where most people will side with the President.I’m not arguing the rights and wrongs, I’m just saying so much mad stuff is coming out of the White House the democrats need to pick and choose their fights, and this seems a really unwise choice. They might even boost Trump’s popularityPutting aside who was being deported are you comfortable with governments ignoring the courts ? This time you agree with the decision because of who’s being deported . It doesn’t matter if the decision is popular or not . Next time it might be a decision you disagree with , what if Labour just ignored the courts here . Would you be okay with that ?Trump has done some mad stupid shit these last weeks, but deporting violent Venezuelan gangsters to El Salvador is not one of them. It’s also bound to be popular. Are the Dems really gonna fight on THIS hill?
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
20m
🚨🚨🚨
So we're hitting a crisis point, with the apparent evasion of court orders on deportations and immigration, plus shutting down agencies, canceling grants, and firing civil servants contrary to law. And claims from DOJ that Article II of the Constitution enables autocracy.
https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1901388655408890179
When marvelling at the horrors coming out of the Trump admin (and there are many) it’s important to remember that the American Left is deeply stupid, mendacious, greedy, narcissistic and hypocritical
I agree that the principle of the executive ignoring or overriding the judiciary is dangerous, yet I can't get exercised about the why and I think if you ask average Americans they'll agree and question why there's a judge attempting to protect these gang members who aren't citizens and have been responsible for murders, rapes, assaults and many other violent crimes.
Trump's game is to try and undermine due process. "Gang members" is I think partly just what Trump is calling them (ie rhetoric) to distract from his abuse of the Presidency; that's rhetoric. If they *are* Gang members, then just like everyone else they have rights to due process according to the law.
There's a further issue that they have been sent to a third country - El Salvador.
The law Trump is trying to use is the same one by which 120k Japanese Americans, including citizens, were thrown into concentration camps in WW2. But it isn't wartime in the USA, and it isn't an emergency - other than that Trump has attempted to manufacture one.
Without testing in Court we cannot know that, which is why he's doing it this way. It's exactly the same process as Musk closing down organisations at a couple of days notice, which require in law to be closed down in Congress.
A blatant example was the removal of Inspectors General - internal regulators introduced in Departments after Nixon misused Government data to target opponents, to protect the public.
Musk just expelled them out without telling Congress, when the law requires Congress to be given 30 days notice, with identified causes for dismissal.
It is just the latest step in a process to destroy the rule of law. And that rule is indivisible; if we choose not to care about a particular case, then we have sold out the principle.

5
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
So the punters think Labour most seats and Farage next PM.Not quite. IIRC punters think there is an 81% chance that Farage won't be the next PM; and as of the header today a 59% chance that Labour won't get most seats.
An interesting combination.
How long would a Ref-Con coalition hold together in those circumstances?
Farage is a 19% chance in a Grand National size field with 50 Foinavons entered, and where the only decent horse, the current PM, isn't a runner for 'next'.
Labour most seats is a 41% in a three horse race.
Value? There's a bit of value with Labour; and in the PM Handicap, value in Streeting possibly.
As for me, I am retiring hurt after Cheltenham.
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
@nytimes.comQuite right too, for being such a dangerous individual. What if one of those people she gave a kidney to became a rapist, or a murderer?
A kidney transplant specialist and professor at Brown University’s medical school has been deported from the U.S., even though she had a valid visa and a court order temporarily blocking her expulsion, according to her lawyer and court papers.
I bet she never even bothered to check if the person on her table was a God-fearing American and just attempted to save all their lives instead.
These woke doctors saving the lives of people God has made sick are interfering with God's plan and have to be stopped or deported.
Now please pray for my brother who is currently in hospital getting the best treatment money can buy. God bless those saving his life, they are truly doing God's work.
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
How quickly Liz Truss is forgotten.At the moment, yes, because Labour are doing quasi right-wing things like increasing defence spending and cutting back on welfare, that the Tories talked about a lot but never really managed to grasp properly.The idea of any opposition losing out on perceived competence with Reeves as Chancellor is mildly mindboggling. Kemi announced some policy work recently which is long overdue and it will be interesting to see what they come up with. A coherent opposition is certainly required and I don't see Reform ever fulfilling that role.
So, the risk is, both on competence and policy they are outgunned.
Rachel Reeves has inherited a dire economic situation, a lunatic in the Whitehouse intent on crashing the global economy and now a consensus that the UK needs to significantly increase defence spending.
I don't like many of the choices the govt is making, but she's been willing to make tough choices.

6
Re: Punters continue to think Labour will win the most seats at the next election – politicalbetting.com
That is why Presidential systems are much worse than Parliamentary ones. Under the former, it is virtually impossible for a President to be evicted during his term. You basically elect an eighteenth century monarch for a few years and hope you haven't made a terrible mistake. Whereas under a Parliamentary system, the leader is kept constantly accountable to a majority in Parliament (as well as, in our case, to the Monarch). And the people also get their say every few years.There is only one thing that matters, and everything else is subservient to this:It’s pretty clear now that the biggest danger to democracy is not the so called left wokists on steroids but right wingers who support Trump ,who only want free speech which they agree with and happily ignore the trashing of the courts which might make decisions they disagree with . You’d think Musk saying judges should be impeached because basically they’re simply following the law would set alarm bells ringing .I respectfully disagree.
The people need to be able to evict their rulers.
When that goes, everything goes to shit.
Our system of government, though flawed in many ways, is in this respect far superior to its French, American or Russian counterparts.

7
Re: Punters agree with Farage – politicalbetting.com
There is only one thing that matters, and everything else is subservient to this:It’s pretty clear now that the biggest danger to democracy is not the so called left wokists on steroids but right wingers who support Trump ,who only want free speech which they agree with and happily ignore the trashing of the courts which might make decisions they disagree with . You’d think Musk saying judges should be impeached because basically they’re simply following the law would set alarm bells ringing .I respectfully disagree.
The people need to be able to evict their rulers.
When that goes, everything goes to shit.
Woke is shit. But so long as you can evict the wokists... well, then the damage they can do will be pretty minimal.
98% taxes on "unearned income" are pretty dumb. But so long as you can throw out those that implement them, then it'll be OK.
And on. And on. And on.
Nothing matters more than a system which forces governments to be accountable to their citizens.
Never throw away the system of democratic checks and balances for a little temporary benefit for "your side".

12
Re: Punters agree with Farage – politicalbetting.com
Biden should have stuck to his promise to be a "bridge", yes I agree. He ought to have stood aside way earlier. That's part of a "reasons Trump won" analysis. There are loads of takes on this. Everybody has one. But the responsibility for Trump2 lies with those who campaigned and voted for it not with those who campaigned and voted against it.Nah that's rubbish. We were all saying well before the election that if they didn't dump Biden they would lose. And then they managed to destroy any chance Harris might ever have had by messing up the handover.They did put forward a decent candidate but lost as incumbents everywhere were doing, mainly due to inflation. They bear zero responsibility for Trump. They fought a centre ground campaign (aka "compromising with the electorate") and bust a gut to stop him. This "oh but the Dems" thing is the purest hogwash. It's intellectually and morally sloppy.Yes it is, a bit. Because if they'd put forward a decent candidate and/or tempered their own weirdness a bit and/or compromised with the American electorate, this wouldn't have happened. Trump is a direct consequence of Dem pigheadedness.It's an exercise in deflection. This horror is not one iota the responsibility of those who warned against it and fought for it not to happen.Well, it kind of is because it's how we got here. Imagine Trump against Obama, or Bill Clinton (though come to think of it, beyond that, most of the Dem candidates of my lifetime have been rubbish).It isn't important to remember that. It's a distraction from the point at issue.I’m not arguing the rights and wrongs, I’m just saying so much mad stuff is coming out of the White House the democrats need to pick and choose their fights, and this seems a really unwise choice. They might even boost Trump’s popularityPutting aside who was being deported are you comfortable with governments ignoring the courts ? This time you agree with the decision because of who’s being deported . It doesn’t matter if the decision is popular or not . Next time it might be a decision you disagree with , what if Labour just ignored the courts here . Would you be okay with that ?Trump has done some mad stupid shit these last weeks, but deporting violent Venezuelan gangsters to El Salvador is not one of them. It’s also bound to be popular. Are the Dems really gonna fight on THIS hill?
Bill Kristol
@BillKristol
·
20m
🚨🚨🚨
So we're hitting a crisis point, with the apparent evasion of court orders on deportations and immigration, plus shutting down agencies, canceling grants, and firing civil servants contrary to law. And claims from DOJ that Article II of the Constitution enables autocracy.
https://x.com/BillKristol/status/1901388655408890179
When marvelling at the horrors coming out of the Trump admin (and there are many) it’s important to remember that the American Left is deeply stupid, mendacious, greedy, narcissistic and hypocritical
Their choice of candidate was poor but survivable. The way they eventually got round to having her as the candidate handed the election to Trump.

5