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Another worrying thing about the drone incident is that we were using F35s to shoot down cheap drones.
And we didn't even manage to shoot them all down.

If another European country were facing the kind of mass attacks that Ukraine faces, that simply isn't sustainable for much more than a couple of weeks.

In a world without the US element of the NATO guarantee, what, in our current capacity, is to prevent Russia threatening or blackmailing some of the smaller European states ?
It's not as though international norms will do that.

This is what I keep thinking - what is the point of NATO article 5 if America are no longer underwriting it?

In fact what is NATO without America?

NATO without America is still the collective self-defence of dozens of democracies that would mostly struggle to defend themselves individually.

In some ways NATO is even more important without America.

I think sending cruise missiles into Russian drone factories would be a proportionate response to their drone attack on Poland last night, and would make it unlikely Russia would attack NATO with drones again.

If we brush it off at no big deal they will attack again and escalate further.

I think a direct missile attack on Russia would be a massive escalation.

Something like a massive cyberattack perhaps more likely, and perhaps some mysterious explosions.

A direct attack would be an escalation (attack rather than flying some drones past). But if our Ukrainian friends were to somehow gain the kit and intel to take out facilities supporting the nightly Russian attacks on their country, that would seem proportionate. They would, afterall, only be acting in response to direct attacks.

One of the Russian drones was nearly 300km into Poland. This is a change in behaviour by Russia. It's not the previous thing where drones would dip into NATO airspace to bypass Ukrainian air defences.

Russia are testing NATO's response. If NATO does not push back firmly enough then Russia will take further steps, with the aim of destroying weapon supplies in Poland bound for Ukraine and creating fear in European civilians to erode support for Ukraine.

If this isn't a "Fuck Around and Find Out" moment for Russia then it will only get worse.

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So Putin has concluded (correctly) that he's faced with the weakest most naive and clueless American president in history and is acting accordingly. Dangerous times.

It's not just about Trump. It's also that European leaders are scared to act without American support.

We can't afford to let this be about Trump. Europe has to determine its own fate.

A bit of bellicose ranting on here and nobody wants to go where that might end up.

I'm happy to concede Russia might not have the control over its drones we imagine and while Belarus might have no objections, Poland has quite rightly chosen to defend its airspace.

I doubt it's any kind of serious "test", more logistical bumbling and technological over-reach in Moscow. Had Polish planes shot down drones over Ukraine, that would be different - Ukrainian anti-drone technology is doing no more than the Poles have done.

This conflict has seen the unprecdented use of drones in warfare and as with all new battlefield technologies, they don't always work.

Once again, we can rely on the media (both old school and social) to create a mountain out of a molehill and a crisis out of a small drama.

Frankly that's spin attempting to minimise what was very likely intentional.
Russia has been sending its drones over NATO airspace in a regular basis, though up until now, not deep into it. This time, is was several hundred kilometres. The likelihood of its being accidental on so many occasions is pretty small.

We've been turning a blind eye to this stuff, and if we continue to do so, it's likely to get worse.

I agree that direct attack on Russia in response would be risky, and unnecessary. Supplying Ukraine with greater capabilities to defeat the unprovoked Russian invasion would not be either of those things.

Sky

Breaking news

'Mandelson stayed in Epstein's New York home when Epstein was in prison'

I think you have got this BigG. Mandy is toast. Curries all 'round.

The interesting question is why people thought Mandelson's ambassadorship would end any other way.

He has shown staggeringly poor judgement on so many previous occasions and is probably the most scandal-prone British politician of the last generation, most traceable in some way to a love of sucking up to the rich and famous. His wikipedia page is a long list of such incidents, unrelieved by any achievements of note. Yet somehow, despite all the disasters and corruption, and never having done much, he keeps getting appointed to important and prestigious jobs.

As such he is perhaps the perfect embodiment of our incestuous and failing political class. So perhaps I've just answered my own question.