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The damage to the the Soyuz pad at Baikonur is confirmed.

This is the only pad the Russians currently have to launch to ISS. This means crew rotations blocked, but more importantly (perhaps) Progress cargo craft can't be sent to the station. The ISS can only be refuelled by Progress. Which means that after a while ISS will run out of fuel for attitude control related matters (It's a bit complicated with gyroscopes and de saturation, but that's the size of it)

To fix the pad, they would need to -

1) build a new service structure under the pad
2) Take a service structure from a mothballed pad
3) Convert/reactivate another pad - would ned to include work for Progress and the Suyuz spacecraft.

1) Will take a long, long time. SpaceX they are not. Years
2) Not been done before. It's a huge piece of equipment - might well need to be cut into sections, moved, rebuilt.
3) Again, will take a long, long time. Experience with Russian space tech and other Russian stuff is that the Russian approach to "moth balling" is "leave it to rust".

So no launches to the space station for months. Possibly years.

Which means a growing problem for the ISS - and a humiliation for Putin, incoming.

Yeah that launch pad is a real mess, looks to be a total writeoff.

They’re going to have to try and re-activate one of the old ones, and in the meantime there’s no Russian transport to the ISS, only SpaceX Dragon and Crew Dragon modules.

The big one is the refuelling, for which they’re going to have to either improvise a US solution or wait for the pad to be rebuilt. You’d put good money on SpaceX being able to improvise something if they could get their hands on a Russian docking assembly and refuelling rig.

Fun fact, the service module which collapsed under the launch pad was made in, you guessed it, Ukraine.

People have accidents all the time! What makes you think it was sabotage?

I don’t think it was sabotage, launch pads being damaged happens all the time in spaceflight, it’s a pretty unforgiving environment underneath a rocket launch!

It’s just that this particular failure has collapsed the entire service structure under the pad, and it’s debatable whether it’s even possible to fix it. It weighs hundreds of tonnes and was six decades old, but also the only one operational. Other similar structures exist close by at Baikanur, but they’re unlikely to be in good condition.

I saw on twitter that the other recently active launch area is indefinitely out of commission as it was built with Ukrainian electronics

Haha that would be funny, perhaps the Russians should have thought about things like this before they went to war with Ukraine? There’s a lot of the old Soviet military-industrial complex in Ukraine, and a lot of unserviceable equipment the Russians have is because of a need to get Ukranian parts.

One I remember well is gyroscopes for MiGs and Sukhois, they’re a very weird and quirky 1960s analogue technology that was still used up until the ‘90s, and are impossible for the Russians to service. There’s a number of Russian military planes grounded because of unserviceable gyroscopes, and they’re trying to get hold of them from all over the world they sold the planes to in period. I suspect the Chinese have some in stock they don’t want to sell!

Well, the plan was to roll in, take Kyiv, kill Zelensky and install a puppet, was it not? And all in short order. Ukranian parts secured at favourable rates long before any shortages would kick in.

Something something plans and reality

That plan had a reasonable prospect of success I would say. It just required the Zelenskyy government not to seriously defend Kyiv (as they didn't do in any of the cities in the South incidentally). But of course the government and people of Kyiv held their ground and Russia has never had a Plan B.

The Russians appeared to be expecting the roads to Kyiv to be lined with people waving Russian flags and giving them food as they passed.

Instead, they were lined with people carrying NLAWs and Javelins, who weren’t fans of Russian tanks.

Is that going to end up as one of only a very small number of rubies in the dust of Boris Johnson's career: NLAWs to Ukraine?

The only other one I can find is his kicking off of bringing the first generation of widespread mobility infrastructure to London.

What have I missed?

Ukranians love Boris Johnson, for most of them he was the face of the international response to the war. Even if you dislike almost everything else he did as a politician, he deserves immense credit for that response. It wasn’t just the British response either, Johnson led a lot of the early meetings of European leaders, bringing goodwill despite the B-word. There’s a Boris Johnson Street in Kyiv, and a Boris Johnson pub near Lviv.

He was also Mayor for the Olympics, and as you say introduced rental bikes in London.

I’ll also argue that he finally got the B-word over the line after half a decade of wasted time, and that his response to the pandemic was generally good.

FPT:

Blimey. I missed in the Budget that DfE will take over all council's SEND spending from 2028.

£6b a year Guardian is saying.

That's a really interesting move, and it's one area where there should be room for considerable savings.

In my neck of the woods, taxis are almost impossible to get at school run time because they are al transporting pupils. If for example I have a hospital appointment involving eye drops (so can't drive), and for some reason I don't want to cycle (eg it would be the no-suspension Brompton over the moonscape in my lane) then it is no taxi between 8:15am and 9:5am, for example.

If there was a major push on "safe routes to schools" (which means relentlessly for 10-20 years), so kids could cycle, wheel or walk safely, that could be reduced, plus there would be the mental health benefits of 15-45 minutes outdoor exercise morning and evening *.

"From 2028" sounds as if there will need to be some serious policy co-ordination with the new Councils coming in around then.

* We have the research for this; it is one reason why active travel projects have such better returns than road projects.

Last Christmas I bought my pal an elephant for his room.

He thanked me profusely, but I just said “don’t mention it”.

What do you make of Popbitch giving credence to the conspiracy theory that Scouse drill artist Esdeekid is actually Timothy Chalamet? My son is a big fan of scouse drill and has been on at me about this theory for months, it would blow his mind if it were true.

My knowledge of drill music is only matched by my knowledge about being subtle.

That said I am a big fan of Timothée Chalamet.

Yes you even know how to spell his name unlike me obviously!

Amongst my friends he hits this perfect Venn diagram of geekiness for me and for my gay friends The Straight Prince of Twinks.

That's funny.

He's also a surprisingly good actor.

He is, I adore him.

He was fabulous as Bob Dylan in A complete unknown. Just terrific. It was like the picture on Freewheelin had just walked off the page.