Best Of
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
Believe the same was a core principle of Brexitism.The US thinks they hold all the cards due to the balance of trade.This is where China will win.The Chinese must be selling. Bigly.The bond markets tell a different, but equally incomprehensible story.Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
Markets now rate Greek 30 year bonds a safer investment than US 30 year bonds.
https://x.com/DrewPavlou/status/1909950326180024373
They can utterly fuck American via bonds.
🤔
Something about German auto manufacturers, and Italian prosecco makers.
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
Can anyone explain to me, looking at the markets, why all the European ones are in the red today, down about 3-4%, but the US ones are broadly breakeven.No, they can't. Despite some feverish herding of opinion on here, unmatched since the gilded dawn of the SMO, nobody has a fucking clue what is happening or what comes next.
Dura_Ace
6
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
The problem for Trump is he is using a sledgehammer to crack a nut.The problem with Trump is that he's a nut in charge of a sledgehammer.
Nigelb
8
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
The yield on 30 year UK gilts is now 5.22%, the highest since 1998.
This blows any fiscal rules Reeves was talking about completely out of the water. It is not even close. Borrowing at this rate or even turning over maturing gilts is really going to hurt. We are going to need huge cuts in spending and huge increases in taxation to reduce our future borrowing. Any ideas of borrowing for investment now have brutal levels of return required to justify.
This is what happens when you allow debt to rise to 100% of GDP. You are utterly dependent on the kindness and common sense of others. And there is not a lot of either around.
This blows any fiscal rules Reeves was talking about completely out of the water. It is not even close. Borrowing at this rate or even turning over maturing gilts is really going to hurt. We are going to need huge cuts in spending and huge increases in taxation to reduce our future borrowing. Any ideas of borrowing for investment now have brutal levels of return required to justify.
This is what happens when you allow debt to rise to 100% of GDP. You are utterly dependent on the kindness and common sense of others. And there is not a lot of either around.
DavidL
6
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
No more alcohol for table 10, please!I don’t give a fuck about this shit any more. Wanky students protesting about wanky shiteOn topic, Almaty Kazakhstan is the most surprisingly agreeable city I’ve visited in - fuck knows how long. A decade? More? Ever?https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/kazakhstan
Good food, great bars, young people, no fucking “religion”, major mountains, loads of booze, big party people, really safe, surrounded by amazing scenery, yet also respectful polite and kind
So if the shit hits the tan? - PB - this is where we all go. Or Uruguay
Slam them in jail. Do worse with the worst
You know who sent the tanks into Tiananmen Square? Deng Xiao Ping, the man who correctly saw that China needed prosperity long before democracy - if it ever needs democracy at all
Deng pulled 1bn Chinese out of poverty, after that. He was right to crush the protests
Re: Trump number 2 specials – politicalbetting.com
The most stupid thing the UK did was having seen that China doesn't act in the global interest during COVID, Boris set up a taskforce to investigate what crucial elements of the supply chain are wholly reliant on China and how could we onshore / do deals with our allies to try to reduce that dependance.
Then he scrapped it.
The premise of the taskforce is what actually what Western countries should be doing.
Then he scrapped it.
The premise of the taskforce is what actually what Western countries should be doing.
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
The public know well that the King has no input on such matters.Lisa Nandy: I no longer want to abolish the Royal familyI have an upcoming thread saying how the Trump state visit could turn the UK into a republic.
...
Lisa Nandy has said she no longer wants to scrap the monarchy because Britain needs the Royal family at a time of global “turmoil”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/09/lisa-nandy-changes-mind-abolish-royal-family-keir-starmer/ (£££)
The President saves the King.
Trump comes to the UK and is hosted by the King then we will see protests on the streets not seen the Iraq war.
The monarchy could be collateral damage.
I’ve heard, over the years, so many prognostications on The End Of The Monarchy.
#DesparateRepublicanism
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
Yes, because Trump is such a good advert for having an executive President instead of a figurehead monarch.Lisa Nandy: I no longer want to abolish the Royal familyI have an upcoming thread saying how the Trump state visit could turn the UK into a republic.
...
Lisa Nandy has said she no longer wants to scrap the monarchy because Britain needs the Royal family at a time of global “turmoil”.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/politics/2025/04/09/lisa-nandy-changes-mind-abolish-royal-family-keir-starmer/ (£££)
The President saves the King.
Trump comes to the UK and is hosted by the King then we will see protests on the streets not seen the Iraq war.
The monarchy could be collateral damage.
Re: When the shit hits the tan – politicalbetting.com
I think we need to have words with whoever created the tag line “the future is bright, the future is orange”
eek
7
Re: Trump number 2 specials – politicalbetting.com
The AfD have taken the lead in a poll for the first time:It is significant - perhaps very significant - that the catastropfuck of Trumpism does not seem to be impacting the alt-right in Europe, which goes from strength to strength
https://x.com/wahlrecht_de/status/1909879533450285077
AfD 25 %
CDU/CSU 24 %
SPD 15 %
GRÜNE 11 %
DIE LINKE 11 %
BSW 5 %
FDP 4 %
(Ipsos）
You'd think this would be covered by Brit journalists specialising in the USA but they are too lazy. I am tempted to shout at them to put a wiggle on, eg. "Arbeit, Matt Frei!"
Leon
5