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MRP goodness from More in Common

A year from GE 2024 our MRP in @thetimes with @cazjwheeler finds Reform winners from Labour’s early stumbles. Tories/Lib Dems fight for third
➡️ REF UK 290 (+285)
🌹 LAB 126 (- 285)
🌳 CON 81 (-40)
🔶 LIB DEM 73 (+1)
🌍 GREEN 7 (+3)
🟡 SNP 42 (+33)
🟩 Plaid 4 (-)
⬜️ OTH 8 (+2)

So Kemi Kingmaker as to whether Farage or Starmer becomes PM

On those figures Starmer(?) would require Kemi, Davey and the SNP. Farage would only need Kemi OR Davey.
Can't see Davey getting involved with either Tories or Reform.

Yes so most likely a Reform government propped up by the Kemi led Tories and the same applies if Jenrick became Tory leader.

If Cleverly or Stride became Tory leader not impossible they could back Starmer over Farage though, in return for some fiscal conservatism on tax and spend but again Starmer could then have problems with his backbenchers

Supporting a Reform 'government', or, even worse, being part of a Reform-led coalition would lead to the demise of the Conservative party as we know it.

Supporting either Reform, or Labour, would land them in trouble.

Yup, it's surely just sit quietly and let Reform implode as a minority government and then be ready to pick up the pieces as a "grown up" party.

Yep. 'You've tried the rest now reelect the best' style
Note - pithy nonsense phrases not an endorsement

Am reminded of a sign on a builders' van in Brum.

"The Singh Brothers: You've tried the cowboys, now try the Indians..."

It's time to outline £100bn in spending cuts and tax rises, split 75% towards spending cuts with the majority coming from welfare and entitlements. If the government doesn't do this and continues to borrow like a drunken sailor we're heading for a bond vigilante strike and another bout of QE which will push inflation up and destroy people's disposable incomes.

The only way out is to cut welfare spending and get people back into work. We can't afford to pay the lazy to sit at home doing nothing on benefits.

'Benefits' according to the OBR are £150bn on Pensioners; £88bn on UC; and £74bn on other benefits. Where would you axe to get the £100bn?

Should we get pensioners back into work?

£20bn each out of UC and "other" benefits.

Cut the triple lock entirely.

£20bn out of the state pension by tapering above £40k, spend half of the saving on increasing the state pension for those who don't have any or significant private income in retirement.

NI payable on all income types/merge NI and income tax.

50% haircut on defined benefit public sector pensions for amounts over £40k (so a £60k DB pension becomes £50k).

Freeze thresholds for a further 3 years.

Cut at least 500k public sector jobs within two years, ban use of agency staff and severely limit the use of consultants and contractors. Use half of those savings to offer competitive salaries for technical roles.

I think that would probably make a £100bn worth of closing the deficit, the resulting fall in bond yields and inflation would probably add another £20bn saving per year on the interest bill.

And means test the NHS for the wealthy

Define wealthy.

Otherwise people like me will either die because they can't afford treatment (and I am already at high risk of early death because of the NHS's failures to spot stages 1, 2 or 3 of my cancer) - and I can't - or be bankrupted and made homeless.

As for the state pension, it gets taxed if the pensioner has other income.

One of the reasons for the deficit is the amount spent on furlough during Covid - money largely spent on those in jobs and to keep them in jobs. It was about £140 billion. They too should contribute.

- 1p on income tax.
- Extend VAT to food, books/newspapers & children's clothes.
- NI for everyone who works.
- Limit or abolish tax relief for those giving to charity and place an upper limit on the tax saved by those contributing to charity whether alive or after death.
- Limit tax relief for pension contributions to the basic rate.
- Extend VAT on education to all education providers, including universities.
- Freeze thresholds.
- Place a limit on public sector pay increases (the amount shovelled at train drivers by Reeves never gets mentioned here but it was a stupid move).
- Abolish the WFA and other pension-specific benefits. Aim for the state pension to be the same as the tax free income as and when we can afford it.
- Abolish the triple lock.
- Those with assets should contribute something towards social care.
- Introduce council tax bands for higher value houses.
- Increase or widen the charges for council services beyond the basic.
- Ensure that overseas visitors pay for the NHS. Other countries manage this. So can we.
- Limit tax relief for private equity companies loading companies up with debt, taking dividends and asset stripping. (Thames Water and other companies in a similar position should be allowed to go bust and then nationalised for a £. Too often asset stripping has been presented as overseas investment. It is a gigantic con.)

And so on.

There is a nasty streak among some of the commentary on here. Everyone seems to want others to pay taxes and those who work on here seem to think that they should be exempt from any measures to help pay down the deficit, thinking it must all be done by the poor and the old. It also gives the impression that some welcome AD because they will be able to pressure the old and sick into killing themselves to save money or withhold treatment so that they suffer. It is disgustingly frankly. I am surprised to see @Big_G_NorthWales among their number

...

One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

Goodbye to All That
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

Good Lord, that was a depressing read

The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.

But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK

A true American patriot would be someone who respected the US Constitution, and was glad the US won the Civil War and World War II.

Not someone who hates the US Constitution (besides the 2nd Amendment), and flies the flag of America's enemy in either the Civil War or WWII.

I don't know if you can really call flying the Confederate flag flying the flag of America's enemy. It was part of America.

That's a bizarre interpretation, even for you.

In other news I have accepted a new job for a British startup at C-Level, I start in September and I'm very excited at the prospect. There are only ~30 people at the company, I'll be the second person in at exec level. I've obviously taken a pretty drastic pay cut to do this from my finance and fintech days but for the first time in ages I'm really looking forwards to going back to work.

I think it will be about 11 months off in total spent with the family, which is the best year I've had since the year my then girlfriend (now wife) and I went travelling together for six months and got married a few months after we got back. If you can afford to take the time off, I'd highly recommend doing a year(ish) long career break and just spending the time with family and not worrying about work stuff. I'm obviously very lucky that I have earned well in my previous roles and that my wife also has a high income so I do recognise that not everyone would be able to do it.

One FBI guy's experience of the 'new' FBI under Trump:

"I recount those events more in sorrow than in anger. I love my country and our Constitution with a fervor that mere language will not allow me to articulate, and it pains me that my profession will no longer entail being their servant. As you know, my wife and I are expecting our first child this summer, and this decision will entail no small degree of hardship for us. But as our organization began to decay, I made a vow that I would comport myself in a manner that would allow me to look my son in the eye as I raised him."

Goodbye to All That
https://www.lawfaremedia.org/article/goodbye-to-all-that

Good Lord, that was a depressing read

The political capture of both law enforcement and the justice system is happening very rapidly, and far more blatantly than even I expected.

But at least it’s being captured by the right side. By American patriots

In the UK that capture is being done by people, agencies, cultures - that actively hate the UK

Your usual half-baked nonsense. It’s quite obvious that in the US these so-called patriots hate a lot about their own country, and are trashing many of its people, businesses, institutions and alliances. These are, after all, the same people that trashed, or supported the trashing of, their own Capitol not all that long ago.

37 years ago today since the Piper Alpha disaster. My Dad was working off shore in the North Sea at the time but he was away on a short holiday with my Mum and my sister and I were both at home house/cat and dog sitting for them. We had neither the radio or the TV on that day, but I always remember the phone started ringing as old friends of my Dad who didn't realise which rig he worked on or that he was on shore started phoning to check in with him and their relief when they discovered he was away on holiday. I think it was about the third random phonecall from an old friend of his when I said right what is going on and why is everyone suddenly phoning to check in on my Dad today.

I had moved from Aberdeen the year before to take up a nursing job in Edinburgh, but one of my best friends was on duty at Aberdeen Royal Infirmary when the news came in and the hospital went into emergency mode in preparation for a large amount of incoming casualties and she still talks about the utter shock and sadness that overwhelmed the staff on duty there that day when those casualties didn't materialise as the enormity of the tragedy unfolded.

I had my interview for my first job offshore on the day after Piper Alpha.

60 were due to be interviewed. 12 of us turned up.

We all got jobs

I had been with Chevron about a week. An horrific introduction to the North Sea oil and gas industry.

I have spent my whole career in the shadow of that night. It was utterly transformative for the oil industry around the world.... except the USA.

It may be little consolation to the relatives of those who died but it is undoubtedly the case that many times that number have worked in safety because of the changes wrought by Piper Alpha.

And, dare I say it, the changes driven by the lawyers and the insurers as a result of the unbelievable fiscal cost of the disaster. The fees for the lawyers were frankly obscene. My firm gave some of our fees to the families, it simply seemed unconscionable to us.