Best Of

On Sunday, I said I had agreed with @TSE's 'lay Burnham' strategy. And I had, up until yesterday. But I now see Burnham as the favourite. He is now the clear challenger to Starmer in a way which he wasn't before the weekend. A colleague laid out a scenario which I find convincing: following Labour's shellacking at the by-election and then again in May, another by-election in GM is engineered (it is rumoured that G&D isn't even the one AB had his eye on). Having turned him down - and got a very negative reaction from the party and its voters - the NEC will struggle to justify doing so again. Burnham then wins a by-election, returns to parliament, and immediately challenges Starmer, and wins.
(FWIW, a friend of mine who works at the GM combined authority yesterday received a hilariously terse email from the head of the CA confirming the mayor had made it clear that 'his full focus remains on Greater Manchester' - which was apparently greeted with laughter.)

If I was exposed to AB becoming the next Labour leader and/or PM, I would probably be trying to ease myself out of that position now with a view to swinging modestly the other way should Labour lose the G&D by-election (which I think they will).

Swiss cheese model suggests a lot of holes to get through for ALL that to happen. The NEC don't give a shit - they showed that at the weekend. These are people in deep in the tribal politics of the left. They life for the fight. No, not the fight against the Tories, or Reform, the internal fights in their own party.

Yes, and that's why I was reasonably sure AB would not succeed SKS. There are, what six hurdles:
- there being a by-election
- AB having the balls to put himself forward for the by-election
- the NEC acceding
- Winning the by-election
- Engineering a challenge for the leadership
- Winning the leadership

But I have been surprised by the strength of feeling within the Labour Party that the NEC have made the wrong decision. I have become convinced that enough pressure will be applied. I'm convinced 1 can be re-engineered, and clearly there is no problem with 2. 4 will be tricky but not insurmountable and I'm sure 5 and 6 are relatively easy. 3 is the biggest, and arguably the only significant barrier. It is just a case for the not-SKS bloc - which is large - of applying enough pressure.

i.e. it was Swiss Cheese theory, but it isn't any more. It's simply a case of hammering the NEC nut hard enough - and last weekend was the start of that. The others can all line up fairly easily.

Do you have a vote in the GM Mayoral election @Cookie? If so, would you / did you vote for Burnham?

I do, yes.
I genuinely don't think I voted last time around. It seemed such a foregone conclusion for Burnham there didn't seem much point. I'm happy enough with him as mayor but not to the extent of going out of my way to cast a vote for no practical reason. I have various issues with him, but that's true of any candidate and I wasn't sufficiently enthused by any of his competitors to vote against him.
Back when it was AV, I voted for the Conservative candidate with Burnham as my second preference. But the Conservative candidate that time around was rather more to my taste.

If there was an election tomorrow my inference would be that it would be a much closer two horse race between Labour and Reform, and assuming a reasonable Labour candidate (potentially Burnham's deputy, with whom I have no serious issues; or potentially Bev Craig from Manchester City Council, whom I rate) I'd vote Labour.

How about you @Fairliered ? You're in GM IIRC?

No, I’m in Ayrshire. I was just interested because I often agree with your posts.

You a neighbour of Malc ?

I believe he’s in the posh end of Ayrshire!

Ayrshire has a posh end?

It used to be posh, but has gone downhill because of an influx of downmarket American hoteliers.

...

Lead story in The Times.

Senior Labour figures have privately conceded that they expect to lose a vital by-election after Andy Burnham was blocked from standing. Some fear the party could be pushed into third place behind Reform and the Greens.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-expects-lose-gorton-denton-byelection-andy-burnham-blocked-p380kv0ck

What's the current Labour majority?

Assuming Labour lose, it will be embarrasing, but nothing will actually change. Had Labour lost the consequent Greater Manchester by-election, that would have been vital.

This isn't John Major, ca. 1996.

I suspect it was highly likely that Labour would lose to Reform (without Burnham) before the ludicrous Burnham drama this weekend. It is almost guaranteed now. As I wrote on Friday, losing the Mayoralty would be catastrophic.

And the Burnham pom-pom wavers have failed to address the issue of the resultant probable mayoral defeat.

At least Andy can get back to the job he loves and is 100% committed to.

Promoting Andrew Burnham?

There’s a Tory Party I’d vote for somewhere in the people that are left, especially if Labour get rid of Starmer and go to the left with Burnham “who cares about the bond markets anyway”.

Taking Braverman was a big strategic error in my view for Reform.

She's obviously a flake given her record of sackings and resignations, with a very high opinion of her own abilities not sured by anyone else.
Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman. Jeez, what a shower. These were always the sort of people who made you slightly embarrassed to be a Tory.

Luckily, there are only 5 of you Tory voters left in the entire UK. So the sum total of human embarrassment is modest

Mebbes.
But the polling analysis from the new Tory ginger group ProsperUK (Andy Street, Ruth Davidson et al) shows a LOT of potential for a centre-right party. There are a few of us around, even now.
And, let's face it, have you ever seen a more unprepossessing bunch of bampots than the Tory defectors (Danny Kruger possibly excepted). A bunch of entitled narcissists who would be at each others throats 5 minutes into govt.

Jenrick is good. Talented. Ambitious. Clever. Like it or not - presumably not in your case - he understands social media and he knows how to use it and he is literally the only Tory to have made the political weather at any point (Badenoch excepted, but she’s the leader) since the election

And they’ve lost him. The Tory party is not in any position to lose raw political talent. About the only other one they possess is Katie Lam. And now she’s going too?

I do think this could be terminal

Katie Lam is probably too posh for Reform.

She dresses posh and codes posh and has Lottie as a middle name, but is she actually posh?

She went to a comprehensive.

She went to Guildford County School, where she was head girl. She studied Latin and Greek independently. Then went to Trinity College Cambridge to read Classics.

She was hardly Grange Hill.

Indeed, it was a grammar school originally

So? The sixth form college I went to was a naval training base. I barely know one end of a ship from another.

Nice comprehensive still isn't posh. Not like Dave, Boris or JRM are posh.

No, it isn't uber posh but then neither are grammar schools or minor public schools really but upper middle class.

Proper upper class posh is Eton, Winchester, Westminster, Harrow educated and maybe a few other major public schools too like Charterhouse, Rugby and Ampleforth and Fettes

Expect it isn't anymore, because the upper class posh can no longer afford to send their children there.

It's now Chinese and the international super-rich.

I know somebody who makes a fortune out of advising rich Chinese about private schooling in the West. Demand has never been higher apparently. And of course when the Chinese banned all their in person post-school tutoring services, having a Westeners with a polished CV doing Zoom coaching is also very popular.

Hmm. That's definitely not my experience actually working in the sector. Demand from China has dropped off a cliff in the last three years, for schooling and tutoring. When I first started I had 90% Chinese and Far Eastern clients, now I haven't got a single one. Similarly, one reason so many private schools are closing (the latest being Rendcomb in Cirencester) is they are international schools who cannot attract students.

On that subject, 105 private schools have closed or merged since last January when VAT came in. That's significantly above the long term (10 year) average of around 77 a year closing or merging.

While it would be silly to say it must be VAT - NI costs and fuel prices both seem to be playing a big part too - it's certainly one variable that could have had an impact.

And what's annoying, to come back to the main thrust of the reply, is that this used to be one of our biggest and best invisible exports. Not only did it earn us loads of cash, but it left a huge number of bright and influential people all around the world with a real affection for and connection to Britain which helped in a myriad of other ways too.