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Lead story in The Times.

Senior Labour figures have privately conceded that they expect to lose a vital by-election after Andy Burnham was blocked from standing. Some fear the party could be pushed into third place behind Reform and the Greens.

https://www.thetimes.com/uk/politics/article/labour-expects-lose-gorton-denton-byelection-andy-burnham-blocked-p380kv0ck

What's the current Labour majority?

Assuming Labour lose, it will be embarrasing, but nothing will actually change. Had Labour lost the consequent Greater Manchester by-election, that would have been vital.

This isn't John Major, ca. 1996.

I suspect it was highly likely that Labour would lose to Reform (without Burnham) before the ludicrous Burnham drama this weekend. It is almost guaranteed now. As I wrote on Friday, losing the Mayoralty would be catastrophic.

And the Burnham pom-pom wavers have failed to address the issue of the resultant probable mayoral defeat.

At least Andy can get back to the job he loves and is 100% committed to.

Promoting Andrew Burnham?

There’s a Tory Party I’d vote for somewhere in the people that are left, especially if Labour get rid of Starmer and go to the left with Burnham “who cares about the bond markets anyway”.

Taking Braverman was a big strategic error in my view for Reform.

She's obviously a flake given her record of sackings and resignations, with a very high opinion of her own abilities not sured by anyone else.
Zahawi, Jenrick and Braverman. Jeez, what a shower. These were always the sort of people who made you slightly embarrassed to be a Tory.

Luckily, there are only 5 of you Tory voters left in the entire UK. So the sum total of human embarrassment is modest

Mebbes.
But the polling analysis from the new Tory ginger group ProsperUK (Andy Street, Ruth Davidson et al) shows a LOT of potential for a centre-right party. There are a few of us around, even now.
And, let's face it, have you ever seen a more unprepossessing bunch of bampots than the Tory defectors (Danny Kruger possibly excepted). A bunch of entitled narcissists who would be at each others throats 5 minutes into govt.

Jenrick is good. Talented. Ambitious. Clever. Like it or not - presumably not in your case - he understands social media and he knows how to use it and he is literally the only Tory to have made the political weather at any point (Badenoch excepted, but she’s the leader) since the election

And they’ve lost him. The Tory party is not in any position to lose raw political talent. About the only other one they possess is Katie Lam. And now she’s going too?

I do think this could be terminal

Katie Lam is probably too posh for Reform.

She dresses posh and codes posh and has Lottie as a middle name, but is she actually posh?

She went to a comprehensive.

She went to Guildford County School, where she was head girl. She studied Latin and Greek independently. Then went to Trinity College Cambridge to read Classics.

She was hardly Grange Hill.

Indeed, it was a grammar school originally

So? The sixth form college I went to was a naval training base. I barely know one end of a ship from another.

Nice comprehensive still isn't posh. Not like Dave, Boris or JRM are posh.

No, it isn't uber posh but then neither are grammar schools or minor public schools really but upper middle class.

Proper upper class posh is Eton, Winchester, Westminster, Harrow educated and maybe a few other major public schools too like Charterhouse, Rugby and Ampleforth and Fettes

Expect it isn't anymore, because the upper class posh can no longer afford to send their children there.

It's now Chinese and the international super-rich.

I know somebody who makes a fortune out of advising rich Chinese about private schooling in the West. Demand has never been higher apparently. And of course when the Chinese banned all their in person post-school tutoring services, having a Westeners with a polished CV doing Zoom coaching is also very popular.

Hmm. That's definitely not my experience actually working in the sector. Demand from China has dropped off a cliff in the last three years, for schooling and tutoring. When I first started I had 90% Chinese and Far Eastern clients, now I haven't got a single one. Similarly, one reason so many private schools are closing (the latest being Rendcomb in Cirencester) is they are international schools who cannot attract students.

On that subject, 105 private schools have closed or merged since last January when VAT came in. That's significantly above the long term (10 year) average of around 77 a year closing or merging.

While it would be silly to say it must be VAT - NI costs and fuel prices both seem to be playing a big part too - it's certainly one variable that could have had an impact.

And what's annoying, to come back to the main thrust of the reply, is that this used to be one of our biggest and best invisible exports. Not only did it earn us loads of cash, but it left a huge number of bright and influential people all around the world with a real affection for and connection to Britain which helped in a myriad of other ways too.

Interesting poll

https://x.com/i/status/2015780557599146049

And for those who don't like FON, a poll from a extreme, ultra-right wing news source

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2026/01/andy-burnham-could-win-andrew-gwynnes-seat

Retain Gorton, lose the whole of Greater Manchester.

That's like exchanging your queen for a pawn in a game of chess.

The way to beat Reform is for the government to run the country brilliantly well, and communicate well with the UK population. Might they give that a try instead of worrying about individuals and the micro politics of a seat or a city?

Not lovely Katie?!!

Reform source:

"Katie Lam is going to be one of the next Conservative MPs to defect to Reform UK. She’s been on the fence for a while, but after seeing her closest allies join Reform, she feels like she’s got to make a decision."

https://x.com/charliesimpsona/status/2015808754327957733?s=46&t=CW4pL-mMpTqsJXCdjW0Z6Q

Wow. She’s their last hope

If she goes that’s it

That's way more of a shocker than Jenrick - she is one of those who should be the future, if the Tories have a future. It is starting to look like death by a thousand cuts.

(Spoke to quite a few of the colleagues who are Denton residents today, all furious about SKS blocking Burnham. All Labour 2024 voters.)

I’d be fucking furious if I was Labour. Not least because, as a Reform supporter (despite their many many flaws) Burnham is much more of a threat than Skyr

Burnham is personable, mildly charming, quite left wing without being weirdly dogmatic. I could see him being a fairly effective fresh prime minister capturing 30-35% of the vote

Starmer is viscerally loathed, politically inert, emotionally inept, with actual hints of treachery (Chagos, Hermer, China) - he’s the ideal opponent for Nigel

Lectures on treachery from Nigel "Russia Today" Farage and Reform "Welsh leader in jail for taking bribes from Putin" UK?