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Re: Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
Sandpit
9
Re: Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
Clarkson's on the record that he bought his farm to avoid IHT.https://x.com/jeremyclarkson/status/1963567179506258418When a farmer tries to look after his children, what they actually say is he should be treated more like anyone else with an asset to pass on, rather than as a special case.
“I’m puzzled. Labourites tell us that Angela Rayner was only trying to look after her child which they quite rightly say is understandable.
But when a farmer tries to look after his children, they say he’s a tax dodger.”
ETA: There's debate, as we've often had on here, about whether farmers should be a special case, but I don't think anyone in Labour is accusing them of tax dodging. People who bought farmland as an inheritance tax dodge, maybe, but not actual long term farmers.
People buying farms to avoid IHT are a reason why actual farmers can't afford land for farming.
Creating tax cutouts causes unintended/undesirable consequences.
Re: Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
I may be the last conservative standing but they will not get my vote under any circumstancesI think Reform will win the next GE.I do think it is incredibly plausible the Tory vote will be squeezed further. Although I do appreciate that Reform and Tory voters are not in lockstep, there is a “back the winner” effect I could see come into play if the polls stay as they are.
I'm actually suprised that the forced choice 'Lab or Reform' question is already as close as 43:37. Plenty for Reform to play for and the trajectory is still titing in their favour.
There is the 18% Conservative vote to squeeze further (it saddens me but they are done.) After November's budget and maybe another couple like it, with Labour's manifesto pledges on Taxes in tatters, the 52% who delivered Brexit (allowing for electoral churn ofcourse) will, broadly speaking, deliver for Reform.
Re: Why Reform winning the next election isn’t the certainty some think it is – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/jeremyclarkson/status/1963567179506258418
“I’m puzzled. Labourites tell us that Angela Rayner was only trying to look after her child which they quite rightly say is understandable.
But when a farmer tries to look after his children, they say he’s a tax dodger.”
“I’m puzzled. Labourites tell us that Angela Rayner was only trying to look after her child which they quite rightly say is understandable.
But when a farmer tries to look after his children, they say he’s a tax dodger.”
Sandpit
7
Re: It’s Not About You – politicalbetting.com
https://x.com/AllisonPearson/status/1963530476016021529?s=19It is unclear that Rayner was using a trust to try and exploit a (believed) loophole. Her position, AIUI, is that she set up a trust for entirely understandable reasons and then made a mistake about the implications of that.
Quite
Re: It’s Not About You – politicalbetting.com
Email your MP.
The government might be about to kill its chances of getting anywhere near its housing targets stone dead.
A Rubbish Tax
The expensive dangers a small tax tweak has for building in the UK
https://benhopkinson.substack.com/p/a-rubbish-tax
Somewhere, deep in the Treasury, a few tax tweaks on landfills have been drawn up which risk blowing up both housebuilding and the Labour Government’s 1.5 million home target.
The UK currently has two bands of landfill tax. The standard rate is £126.15 per tonne. That’s for ‘active’ waste, which can decompose, release methane, or leach harmful substances. Think food, plastics, or general rubbish. Then there’s a lower rate of just £4.05 per tonne, which applies to ‘inert’ waste such as soil, rocks, and concrete. These are non-hazardous and pose little risk in a landfill.
The Government has proposed merging the two, with the lower rate rising over the next five years to eventually meet the standard rate. Meanwhile, the standard rate will rise faster than inflation.
On paper it looks like a minor technocratic change. Yet this small tweak could kill Labour’s 1.5 million home target and housebuilding in London.
The 3,000% increase in low-rate tax will add between £22,000 and £28,000 to the cost of building a home. Some estimates put the cost as high as £52,000 per home. With Labour already off the pace to hit 1.5 million homes in this Parliament, such a massive tax hike will doom their ambitious target...
This is as bad as anything Milliband ever came up with.
The government might be about to kill its chances of getting anywhere near its housing targets stone dead.
A Rubbish Tax
The expensive dangers a small tax tweak has for building in the UK
https://benhopkinson.substack.com/p/a-rubbish-tax
Somewhere, deep in the Treasury, a few tax tweaks on landfills have been drawn up which risk blowing up both housebuilding and the Labour Government’s 1.5 million home target.
The UK currently has two bands of landfill tax. The standard rate is £126.15 per tonne. That’s for ‘active’ waste, which can decompose, release methane, or leach harmful substances. Think food, plastics, or general rubbish. Then there’s a lower rate of just £4.05 per tonne, which applies to ‘inert’ waste such as soil, rocks, and concrete. These are non-hazardous and pose little risk in a landfill.
The Government has proposed merging the two, with the lower rate rising over the next five years to eventually meet the standard rate. Meanwhile, the standard rate will rise faster than inflation.
On paper it looks like a minor technocratic change. Yet this small tweak could kill Labour’s 1.5 million home target and housebuilding in London.
The 3,000% increase in low-rate tax will add between £22,000 and £28,000 to the cost of building a home. Some estimates put the cost as high as £52,000 per home. With Labour already off the pace to hit 1.5 million homes in this Parliament, such a massive tax hike will doom their ambitious target...
This is as bad as anything Milliband ever came up with.
Nigelb
5
Re: It’s Not About You – politicalbetting.com
The graffiti on Rayner’s flat is ugly and sad
But it also shows why she has to resign. There’s no point in carrying on. If she tries to cling on she will become a huge focus of public anger, the “one rule for me” hypocrite who embodies Labour lies
Whether through malice or mistake she made an unforgivable error for a housing minister, and one with a history of calling Tories “tax cheats” and demanding they resign
But it also shows why she has to resign. There’s no point in carrying on. If she tries to cling on she will become a huge focus of public anger, the “one rule for me” hypocrite who embodies Labour lies
Whether through malice or mistake she made an unforgivable error for a housing minister, and one with a history of calling Tories “tax cheats” and demanding they resign
Leon
5
Re: It’s Not About You – politicalbetting.com
Westminster Voting Intention:I’ve gone off JLPartners now. They should stick to posh groceries and homeware.
RFM: 32% (+3)
LAB: 22% (-1)
CON: 18% (+1)
LDM: 12% (-2)
GRN: 7% (-2)
Via @JLPartnersPolls, 19 Aug - 1 Sep.
Changes w/ 17-19 Jul.
MelonB
5
Re: It’s Not About You – politicalbetting.com
Thanks for the header and I hope you are well, Cyclefree.
On this point "The advice, when faced with a man who scares or bothers them – by parents, in self-defence classes and anyone with experience of this – is, first, get away as fast as possible." I think there is a link to the Peggie vs NHS Fife/Upton case. Apparently one of the 'hurty' things that Peggie did was to leave the changing room when Upton was present - in other words doing exactly as you write - get away. Its not just the Met that have been captured by one side of the argument - NHS Fife, the SNP and thus Scottish Government have been too.
On this point "The advice, when faced with a man who scares or bothers them – by parents, in self-defence classes and anyone with experience of this – is, first, get away as fast as possible." I think there is a link to the Peggie vs NHS Fife/Upton case. Apparently one of the 'hurty' things that Peggie did was to leave the changing room when Upton was present - in other words doing exactly as you write - get away. Its not just the Met that have been captured by one side of the argument - NHS Fife, the SNP and thus Scottish Government have been too.
