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Re: The WH2024 primaries will be different from what we are used to. – politicalbetting.com
Portes has drawn an implausible conclusion from the data. The error he has committed is the fourth graph in the Anscombe's Quartet. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anscombe's_quartet The Anscombe's Quartet was designed to illustrate the folly of drawing conclusions from numbers without looking at the graph. -
Re: How low can Elon Musk sink? – politicalbetting.com
There is a search in the top right, you have mentioned it more than once so you will have to decide which you are referring to: https://vf.politicalbetting.com/search?Search=Anscombe -
Re: The Trump legacy, the UK chooses Europe over the open sea? – politicalbetting.com
The denial of ethical objectivism is filled with greater objections, to my mind insurmountable. Like the great ethicist Elizabeth Anscombe I just don't want to be in the same room as people who think that it is only an opinion that there is something wrong about the holocaust (or the Southport murders, or torturing… -
Re: Let’s talk about Coldplay – politicalbetting.com
A fascinating set of questions. A couple of points in response. Evangelical thinking includes people who would like to break out of the cage but not all that many. To take an example, many of the loudest voices in the evangelical movement not only oppose acknowledging gay relationships in an ecclesiastical setting, but are… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Checking the Political Weather in Wales
I would expect the correlation to be positive, but for it to explain a very low percentage of the variance. Also, note Anscombe's Quartet. -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Topping, who served with the British Army in Northern Ireland
I'm not sure I deserve it. The rather lengthy advice I gave concerned the differences between two datasets, but you were asking about the correlation between two variables, a different point. Consequently @Wulfrun_Phil's advice was better. However my remarks about the Pearson'r product-moment correlation coefficient and… -
Re: Sunak’s doing better than Truss – but that’s not saying much – politicalbetting.com
Both determinism and its opposite involve mind bendingly complex causal paths. That's, if you like, what arises from the fact of time, space and change. If humans have free will then there isn't a "how it works". The idea of "how it works" belongs to causal relations in the usual empirical science realm - where it is the… -
Re: If the referendum were rerun today there would be a very different result – politicalbetting.com
https://archive.is/apXSQ (I know people who work(ed) for the ONS) The article makes some very good, and uncomfortable, points. Statistics is having a bit of a nervous breakdown at the moment, for the following reasons: The replication crisis The replication crisis is the discovery that many scientific studies are difficult… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Brexit Carol – how last time is shaping views of GE2019