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Re: Why I’m laying Marcus Rashford for Sports Personality Of The Year – politicalbetting.com
The electoral cycle still turns eventually, since 1952 the longest any party has been out of the White House was the Democrats for 12 years from 1980 and even they still got back in with Clinton in 1992. That is the good news for the GOP. The bad news for the GOP is Carter's defeat in 1980 was the only time since WW2 a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ladbrokes report that 94pc of all bets on the Scottish #Ind
Leading Labour MSP urged to resign after taking part in Unite demo outside director's house A Scottish Labour shadow Cabinet member has been called on to resign after he was pictured at a union protest outside a director's house during the toxic Grangemouth dispute.… -
Re: Things can only get better – politicalbetting.com
In the bigger picture - and if you don’t agree with this please correct me - for the last 100 years, the US has been on a relentless mission to expunge all influence UK has in the world. They usurped UK good and proper in Middle East, even drew up plans in the forties to kick us out of Hong Kong. India has joined in with… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Porn in the U.S.A.
TSE did enjoy writing that one. I think the difficulty in proof and definition makes it an, uh, dodgy market. Another hard-to-define market would be "Trump declares he is the first non-party President since George Washington". The deal with Schumer and Pelosi (if confirmed) is the second straw in the wind. He's clearly fed… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Discussing George Osborne’s chances for the Conservative le
George Osborne told his Mansion House audience recently that he hoped his speech this year as Chancellor was not his last. This may have been a joke, but suggests he's in no hurry to become Foreign Secretary. Personally, I see this bet as being in considerable part a bet that the Conservatives are largest party at the next… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PR without a ratifying referendum – the price for a second
The "bring forward" always relates to the house of commons. - They planned to "bring forward" the Referendum Bill, including both AV and constituency reduction. Strictly speaking there was only a commitment to whip on the AV part, so if the LibDems had chosen to amend it at this point it would have been against the spirit… -
Re: Why do I keep doing this? – politicalbetting.com
Exactly. The NHS operates at near capacity, we have a terrible housing stock and low rate of new building, our infrastructure projects are an absolute joke. Only someone who has lost their marbles would think that a rapidly expanding population, mainly due to immigration, would be a good thing in such circumstances. But… -
Re: The Tories can no longer rely on first past the post – politicalbetting.com
I have been a renter. My parents rented all their life. In fact while my father was dying, the flat was sold to an appalling landlord who so neglected it that it became riddled with dry rot and damp so badly that it was declared unfit for human habitation under the 1952 Housing Act. Imagine a recently widowed woman and her… -
Re: Half of CON voters say Johnson behaves unerthically – politicalbetting.com
Wright's Imperial Hotel survived the earthquake of 1923 and the ensuing fires, and the WW2 firebombings before being taken down in the name of progress... It's been a while since I read Kerr's book, but IIRC he teases out a couple of different causes: 1: a state which got into the mindset of "the first priority is to build… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories aim to win a landslide by trying to persuade us tha
Their education policies are an absolute joke, as I have pointed out many times, and would wreck the state education system entirely in twelve months. They were written by people who were more useless than Nicky Morgan. Even Gove's spectacular incompetence would have been better than Rayner. As has also been pointed out,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The battle over Labour’s planned 50 percent tax rate: Day 3
I'm willing to give fair praise where I think its due. For example I applaud both the rises in the VAT rate and tax threshold. While in other areas some good work is being done in both education and social security. My general grievance is that I see no difference between Blair/Brown and Cameron/Osborne. Cameron, as in his… -
Re: LAB moves to its biggest ever YouGov lead over the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Once nuclear war has been declared, the Martians have landed, Trump has burnt down the Whote House, and a new pandemic has gone global, Truss could get a small and brief, rally-round-the-flag honeymoon and uptick, I agree. -
Re: An effective ad? – politicalbetting.com
I watched the Netflix documentary on Letby last night. Well done and interesting. My daughter has listened to a podcast of the expert press conference in the House of Commons. One of the things that was highly persuasive was that Letby was the only nurse on duty on all 25 of the suspicious cases. But there were originally… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Towards a rational immigration policy
It was ever thus. 'The different momenta of primitive accumulation distribute themselves now, more or less in chronological order, particularly over Spain, Portugal, Holland, France, and England. In England at the end of the 17th century, they arrive at a systematical combination, embracing the colonies, the national debt,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tuesday may see the biggest change to the electoral process in
If one or the other side turns out its core voters in larger numbers than expected then it will look like a systemic polling error. Midterms are more about getting your core vote out than convincing the undecideds (although both are important). From reading articles from all sides of the political spectrum, my take is that… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Three CON defences and a LAB one in tonight’s local by-elec
... ..... ... Avery - I suggest this might be required reading for you: http://www.zerohedge.com/contributed/2013-08-15/housing-bubble-bungle hunchman You have to do better than that zerohedge article Both the International Monetary Fund and the previous Bank of England Governor Mervyn King have both stated that the two… -
Re: The Dire Straits of Hormuz – politicalbetting.com
UNICEF's knowledge of civilian casualties and infrastructure damage in the current conflict is based on direct field assessments, reports from local health and education authorities, and verified data from humanitarian partners on the ground. Such ways of measuring were totally poo poo’d as Bibi levelled Gaza, till the… -
Re: Starmer looks set to become PM but will LAB have a majority? – politicalbetting.com
Absolutely not true. Number of housing units granted planning permission was about 150k for most of the 00s, and has gradually risen to circa 300k per year, with only 200k-ish a year actually being built - large developers land banking to artificially inflate prices is still a problem. This is a good read… -
Re: What will Rishi’s PM chances look like after today’s budget? – politicalbetting.com
Oh give over. You sound like a stereotypical old person complaining about the kids music without realising every generation has done the same. This happens every single year. The Treasury leaks like a sieve, the Speaker acts all indignant. Its been going on so long even the Leader of the House himself was once a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why changes to the primary structure are going to make WH2020
Who knows? This debate has gone on for well over a decade. The winners in the housing market effectively gambled (knowingly or unknowingly) on interest rates staying low. But historically, people have been caught out by rising interest rates. I think it is impossible to guess what will happen. Personally, i'm happy with…