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Re: A Very British Alternative: Jim Callaghan's Victory and the Redefinition of Britain's Future
If The Donald imposed a 150% TARIFF on the posts of @Scott_xP the bloke would be driven into bankruptcy in a matter of hours. -
Re: Political betting is being blamed for the Tories losing control of every council tonight
Blair buggered up the constitution, Brown buggered up the economy. And they both presided over a massive sell off of British family silver. It is remembered fondly as quite a pleasant time, because it was. We had all the riches accrued by a competent Tory Government but all the 'feelgood factor' of a snazzy new (New)… -
Re: I am spotting a trend in Anglosphere elections this week – politicalbetting.com
Thanks Andy J. 👍 Large swing but I guess Labour can take some comfort that it was under 20%. -
Re: Now the focus shifts to Australia – politicalbetting.com
Osaka Castle a month ago when the cherry blossom was out. I explained the Onsen/public bathing system to my wife and Japan is now off the list. But I agree with @Leon it's a fantastic place to visit. Route through Singapore and you can see the Gardens by the Bay. Changi Airport is worth a visit in itself. -
Re: Today’s must watch and some important stats – politicalbetting.com
There's quite a similarity for the Reform profile specifically with former mining areas. Even within Notts the distribution is close - but again, not exact. Does anyone have insight on other coalfields? The diagram to look at may be this one, which is of "Coal Measures" type geology in the UK, as a proxy for "where mines… -
Re: It’s a stunning performance by Reform – politicalbetting.com
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Re: A reminder that getting out the vote is crucial – politicalbetting.com
The question though is why Reform fell short, and very nearly add the Westminster Seat gain to the list of Reform failure too. Is it evidence of a glass ceiling because they bring out coalitions against them and their policies? One thing to check would be if Reform failed where the turnouts were high, looked good where… -
Re: Is this the way for the Tories and Labour to defeat Reform? – politicalbetting.com
They did a poll of the Ad industry and 97% were Remainers. I dont know who the 3% were. -
Re: What’s this betting market going to look like tomorrow afternoon? – politicalbetting.com
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Re: The current bind the Republicans find themselves in – politicalbetting.com
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Re: The forgotten by-election – politicalbetting.com
Yes, but most on here don't believe the polling is that close. -
Re: Three months ago Pierre Poilievre’s party was leading by 27% in the polls – politicalbetting.com
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Re: An update on my 14/1 bet – politicalbetting.com
US Amazon has a policy that differs from long-established American law for stores: When I go into Best Buy, or a supermarket, I can usually see where a product was produced before I buy it. With Amazon, I usually can't. (American producers can include that in their descriptions, and sometimes do.) Some Americans are… -
Re: Trump makes a late intervention to ensure a Liberal landslide – politicalbetting.com
As we come to the local elections it is useful to look at a larger set of by-election results rather than just the few held this week. Here is my data for the last fifty local by-elections: Share of vote: Conservatives 23.93%, Liberal Democrats 21.08%, Labour 20.22%, Reform 18.50%, Greens 9.78%, Others 6.49% Gains and… -
Re: As we wait for the first result – politicalbetting.com
The CPC, maybe, but Farage is still out there- with the strong backing of certain right wing media outlets too. -
Re: Who will get the blame for this? Labour or Trump or both? – politicalbetting.com
Letby is just like post office, the establishment will do anything to avoid admitting they were at fault and the poor scapegoat gets stiffed. -
Re: The 14/1 bet I’ve just taken – politicalbetting.com
On the original topic, I followed TSEs tip and placed a £30 bet on Poilevre to lose his seat yesterday. Reading up some Canadian news today, there's a number of stories suggesting it's going to be a tight race, so there's great value in the 15/1 that was available at Ladbrokes (15/1 as they kindly gave me a one point… -
Re: Hyperliberalism – politicalbetting.com
This is the latest in a series of articles by me. They fall into three broad camps: the Measurement Series, about how we measure political concepts, the Ideas series, about current political concepts, and the Chronicle of a Bet Foretold series, about the logistics of betting wrt specific election. Some were lost after the… -
Re: Shy Conservatives? – politicalbetting.com
Book Recommendation Antony Beevor’s “Russia: Revolution and Civil War, 1917-1921” Extraordinary, lurid, vivid and brutal. I thought I basically knew the story. Turns out I knew 5% The cruelty is mind-boggling, on both sides -
Re: A Cambridge madness – politicalbetting.com
