Search
-
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ipsos-Mori becomes the third pollster in less than a week t
Just out of interest: Biography Lord Freud was appointed Parliamentary Under Secretary of State (Minister for Welfare Reform) in May 2010. He is a Conservative member of the House of Lords. Education He studied philosophy, politics and economics at Merton College, Oxford. Political career Lord Freud was appointed the… -
Re: Johnson’s leader ratings fall to Corbyn’s GE2019 levels – politicalbetting.com
Again, you're assuming two things: 1. That nothing will change between now and the next election - which may well still be further into the future than GE2019 is in the past 2. That various of the less well known candidates who do rather badly against Starmer in this wholly theoretical scenario suffer from being viewed as… -
Re: If like me you thought your AstroZeneca jab was second best some good news – politicalbetting.com
My educational and working-life career has always been about Tier 1B to be honest. I went Red Brick, rather than Oxbridge - I wanted 10 week terms, more fun as well as a very good degree - and I went Big4/niche consultancy, rather than McKinsey or US investment banking route because I didn't want to work all hours God… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The official investigation into the GE2015 polling fail has
'Muslim employment in the UK is pitiful because companies don't want to chance it and end up with someone who wants to disappear three times a day for half an hour to the mosque or some prayer room, or if they are denied that then open up a racial discrimination case. The hairdresser who didn't hire the Muslim woman who… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The night of the crazy EP2014 polling: ComRes has Ukip 11%
Top-rated comment on SeanT's blog post at the moment: "A_Libertarian_Rebel • 10 hours ago Whatever your individual view of UKIP or its policies, the legacy media's antics of the past few weeks have at least achieved one thing: they have opened the eyes of millions of people to the utter falsehood of the notion that the UK… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Experto credite, you don’t need a weatherman to know which way
Weather forecasting - rather than climate forecasting - has improved massively over the last 40 years. We used to be able to accurately predict the next 24 hours weather, and we're now up to about three days. Partly this is about computing power, partly about massively more inputs (sensors) and partly about the fact that… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Heading for Labour minority government?
The likeliest route to Brexit has always been that something very close to May's Deal would be passed by Boris. It requires that there are no more extensions granted by the EU. But they won't do that, you cry. Yes they will. If in the background just one is determined to say no more extensions - say Hungary, with some… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One more heave won’t do it. Labour MPs have to now either b
Morning all :) The figures from YouGov are remarkable on a number of levels. They represent as fundamental a revolution within Labour as the emergence of Thatcherism was for the Conservatives in the 1970s. Thatcher won in 1975 on the back of an anti-Heath vote - Corbyn won in 2015 on the back of an anti-Blair and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » NEW PB/Polling Matters podcast: London, Second Referendum(s),
Strictly speaking, our foreign policy has been to intervene/create alliances such that no single foreign power dominates Europe to the detriment of our interests. This goes back at least 450 years, since we lost our last continental dominions in Europe in the 16th Century and became a global, maritime trading power. That… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Opinium found more CON voters than LAB ones believing that
Well said. However: you cannot have capitalism in the modern world without big business or institutional investor elites. Capitalism thrives on innovation, and we're a long way away from the times when a man in his garage could develop world-changing items such as the light bulb or TV. Research and development costs money,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Time for Labour to make a clean break from its economic pas
I'm sorry but it's not true. Labour stuck to Tory plans in 1997-2001. I didn't believe they would, but they did. This was actually a surplus every year. From ~2001-2007 they increased spending in real terms by over 40%. (I am looking at a chart showing REAL TERMS spending in 2011-12 prices as £450bn and £640bn in 2000-01… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Gove’s white lines are a red line for a majority of the electo
You say that - and you may be right - but remember Hugh Grant going on Oprah and doing a mea culpa interview after his 'incident' in LA. It was honest, raw, emotional, clearly very painful for Hugh - and painful to watch frankly - but it worked. His career hit new highs in the immediate aftermath. I can imagine Michael… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The latest Farage farrago, Douglas Carswell is accused of h
These kids are in for a shock when they get to the real world. The local radio here has been running a story on a survey of graduates entering the job market this Autumn. Apparently, the biggest factor in deciding where to work is apparently work/life balance, even more so than the salary. For graduate trainee jobs! If… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Syria vote: Cameron looks set to win but how many LAB M
They had said they needed two days of debate. War. Peace. To bomb Isil. Not to bomb Isil. The issues were too complex. The stakes too high. The arguments too nuanced. They were wrong. It boiled down to one speech and one moment. Parliamentary history distilled in a way few of us have seen in our lifetime. Hilary Benn’s… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Starmer is unlikely to be the next PM
And the facts in the case? Imagine Nike had held their conference in Carlisle and 70 guests took a trip across the Border. Then imagine one was found to have transmitted Covid-19 to another 25, providing by far the strongest intimation of the virus’s UK presence. Let us further imagine UK ministers failed to inform the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Johnson’s TV debate strategy could be a mistake
Such an irony if LD win back Bermondsey and Old Southwark - the Bermondsey seat (as mostly was) was won by the Liberal's Simon Hughes from nowhere, from the clutches of Lab (after Bob Mellish retired). A dirty campaign ensued in 1983 when the new Lab candidate, one local resident - Australian-born Peter Tatchell, was… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft poll has Swinson beating Johnson, Corbyn and Far
not_on_fire said: » show previous quotes And in how many votes in Parliament in the last 20 years that affected England only have the votes of Scottish MPs made a difference? This from 2015 partially answers your question: By one analysis referred to in this blog post by UCL’s Robert Hazell, only 21 of 5,000 “divisions” in… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Corbyn might not win the Labour leadership
Indigo "Go on Roger, tell us how many we should take ? and for how long, and where we house them, educate them and heal them ? And how many more will get killed trying to cross the med when we give people the expectation of getting a new first world life ? And what we do with the thousands that turn out not to be refugees… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you want to compare main party/leader performances from pas
-
Re: A fine time ahead for Boris Johnson? – politicalbetting.com
The Sunday Rawnsley: Don’t kick me out of the house, so he begs Tory MPs with their fingers on the trigger of a confidence vote, I will prove to you that I can be a different man. His recklessness, his deceitfulness, his entitled attitude that rules never apply to him and his unwillingness to face the consequences of his…
