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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP has “44% lead in Clacton”
Adams and McGuinness denied that they'd ever applied for or accepted an Office of Profit, yet by-elections ensued in the normal way. But that's not the issue. Every MP, of whatever party, for whatever reason, has been granted the Chiltern Hundreds, etc - no questions asked - since 1842. Fifteen were processed within a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New Survation Rochester poll will be published here after 6
I am extremely reluctant to because so many of them are simply being used by some extremely unpleasant people who treat them brutally. There has been a series of Romanian/Gypsy women in Edinburgh over the last year. They sit very formally, sometimes on their knees and they don't move from their position for hours. I was… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lord Ashcroft polling is back with a 20k sample EURef surve
Accurate polling requires an accurate sample. Neither phone or internet are perfect, but online pollsters are packed with people with political hobby horses. The pollsters then try to reweight it all to balance things up. The trend has been to poorer sampling over time. This is a fundamentally flawed process because you… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Most current polling movement is between CON and UKIP with
DavidL - Who'd be a politician? The fact is that most things take a long time to put right, certainly longer than an electoral cycle, or even two or three; and sometimes when you do try to make things better they get worse first. And in the age of 24 hour news, blogs, tweets and all the rest of it, the scrutiny is much… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Swinson’s successor may have only become an MP yesterday
Hold your horses. What we really need to be ready for, as left-liberal internationalists, is facing down fascism in 5 to 10 years, when this "Tories against Thatcherism" has been shown to be utter bollocks. When the betrayal sinks in, those Red Wall Tories are going to be looking for solutions. Someone will be peddling a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If you can’t join them, beat them: Denmark, football, Maastric
One thing that racecourses are really good at is segregating attendees, with separate entrances and facilities. They never see each other all day until they get to the station in the evening. AIUI the old “Silver Ring” chav zone at Ascot has now been moved from the 4 furlong pole next to the grandstand, across the track… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The €60 billion question. The EU exit charge and what it means
We have been regaled for years now with tales of unemployment, fake employment, under employment, faux self employment along with the perils of the 'gig' economy and zero hours contracts. I guess we'd find out how real these things are. We voted Leave nine months ago - yet employment is up 250,000 since, the employment… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB doing better against the Tories in key marginals than i
...and here are the subsample figures from the previous day: Lab 40 (-2) Con 12 (-5) SNP 32 (+12) UKIP 4 (+4) Grn 2 (+1) LD 8 (-11) http://yougov.co.uk/news/2014/08/19/update-labour-lead-5/ So are the Tories 10 points up on 2010 or 5 points down? Or has there been a 15-point swing in 24 hours? Or, cough, are we wasting our… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The post Nick v Nigel debate reaction
On topic, I haven't seen any real coverage of the debate, in which I'm probably in 99%+ of the population. As such, ref My own feeling is that the real loser from tonight is David Cameron and The Tories, today and next week, Nigel Farage has been given one hour to hoover up the Euro-sceptic vote I would be a lot more… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Sadiq Khan shouldn’t resign as an MP were he to become
I entirely agree this government is far too much about spin and putting off the evil hour of tough decisions. But don't underestimate some of the changes they have made. Education, for example, has changed out of all recognition even in the 3 years or so I've been in teaching and that's even before the new exams come in.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Suddenly independence looks within Salmond ‘s grasp in new
Setting aside the pros and cons of SSE moving to quickly reset Cameron's trip switch, this story is disastrous PR for him. There are thousands of people in a similar , or far worse, situation to this, and the power companies ain't racing to their rescue. During heavy storms, we always get called out to water dripping on to… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The online polls all have LEAVE ahead
I've been debating with myself whether to get a bottle of red and sit up watching it or not. I normally watch all GE election results but the EU ref has no exit poll and no result till 1.30am for me (hour ahead). I may wait for sunderland and go to bed after that (work the next day!) Question for PBers: What % victories do… -
Re: Back to British politics for a change and a possible threat to Boris – politicalbetting.com
"So, Foxy, the D Day Landings were a success, and while there's a long hard march to Berlin, with many troubles ahead of us, we can now look to the end of the War." "Bah, don't be too optimistic. We may have beaten the Germans, but we've still massive debts and the country's industrial capacity and housing stock have been… -
Re: The collapse of Sunak as seen through the eyes of punters – politicalbetting.com
An excellent programme from the BBC WS this lunchtime: The Shadow of Algiers. Looking at the legacy, impact in France, contemporary relevance. - An interview with an 87 year old French woman who planted a bomb for the FLN when a student. - The impact on the Front National - JM Le Pen left his monogrammed knife planted in a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s much more variable performance in different catego
Or, in a less slanted coverage of the same report: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-24813467 "Immigrants to the UK since 2000 have made a "substantial" contribution to public finances, a report says. The study by University College London said recent immigrants were less likely to claim benefits and live in social housing than… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Nighthawks is now open
Logistics will be key. If the concert is at 6.15 in Hammersmith and you need to get there at say 5.30 to allow for queuing you are going to be traveling right through rush hour. If this is the timing, I'd think you'd do better doing a nice lunch and then something relaxing in the afternoon. (Most of my recommendations… -
Re: Starmer, not up to it? – politicalbetting.com
Agree with you, Richard. Whether the EC do or do not have a case against AZ - and I do not share the certainty of some on here that they don't - the reaction of our government has so far been absolutely spot on. Mature. Peaceful. No British Bulldog. No warrior rhetoric. It is both the right response and it works. And I… -
Re: The spreads are open – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure it's *that* bad, but Sunak had the advantage over everyone else of knowing that he was calling the election, so you might think he would have been a bit better prepared for doing so, and had a bit more convincing a pitch for voters. So it does feel like he's completely blown the benefit of being able to choose… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » GE2015 polling should be put on one side so the focus for n
THE outcome of next year's independence referendum will be announced if one side has an unassailable lead even if all the counts have yet to be declared, according to a report. Chief Counting Officer Designate, Mary Pitcaithly, said yesterday there would only be official declaration once all 32 local counts had been fully… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How Team Corbyn screwed up JC’s big day and reduced even furth
An amusing anecdote on under-35s and the IRA. My older sister is 28, and one of her earliest memories is from an cousin's wedding in Northern Ireland (she'd have been 3 or 4), in a holiday bungalow, hiding with my parents and trying not to make a sound. In the early hours of the morning my parents could hear a group of men…