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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 2014 could see the end of the Lib Dems as a ‘national’ part
@Frank Booth I think you're grossly overestimating the hatred and dislike of Nick Clegg in Sheffield. IIRC he's been out campaigning during the various local elections, and received warm welcomes. I know it is one council election result, but this spoke volumes (from May) The Liberal Democrats may have had mixed electoral… -
Re: What will the King’s speech do to rising pessimism? – politicalbetting.com
Off topic, but possibly of interest to many of you: This WaPo opinion piece: "Eight columnists discuss: How in the world is Trump winning?" For me, the single most interesting paragraph was this, from conservative Jim Geraghty: "There are an enormous number of grass-roots Republicans who choose to believe that the… -
Re: Has Sunak buggered up the boundary changes? – politicalbetting.com
A resurgent Turkey could be a major problem for a weakened Russia. https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/erdogan-address-pro-palestinian-rally-eve-turkeys-centenary-2023-10-28/ "Israel has been openly committing war crimes for 22 days, but the Western leaders cannot even call on Israel for a ceasefire, let alone react… -
Re: Rees-Mogg’s belittling the Scottish CON leader was dumb – politicalbetting.com
This culture comes from the top. There has often been comment about how old he looks. How he sometimes sounds confused. His habitual lateness. His failure to put in the hours. His red face and haggardness. We've generally put it down to long COVID perhaps? We should now ask this question. How much does the PM personally… -
Re: Tears for Keir? – politicalbetting.com
What is it with police in this country? The sister of a black man who died in police custody has told the BBC that she believes Scotland is a racist country. Sheku Bayoh, 31, died after being restrained by officers in Kirkcaldy, Fife, in 2015. At a public inquiry into his death last week, his sister Kadi Johnson said she… -
Re: What should really worry Tories: anti-CON tactical voting – politicalbetting.com
It’s very easy to iterate a model to fit the answers. Just tweak and run again. It’s not like they are doing a 12 hour calculation. I suspect the models being used are pretty simple. The scandal, as @MaxPB says, is not using real world data when it is available. This has been a problem before, too, and led to some stupid… -
Re: On the day of the 1st anniversary of the vaccine – politicalbetting.com
Presumably the government is gathering to determine what is the appropriate line to take? Rather than (as has often been pointed out before) sending someone out on a press round with a line to take only for the rug to be pulled out from them when that line changes two hours later. They have until Midday to come up with an… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tyranny of Low Expectations
Ever since the ComRes poll on June 12th showed he was the only leadership candidate able to produce an overall majority for the Conservatives, Boris has been in the hot seat. The coalition which propelled him to No.10 and which forms his 35% or so of support is made up of ardent No Dealers and those Conservatives still… -
Re: Just two weeks to go before the Iowa caucuses – politicalbetting.com
The only time a female candidate appeared on a Presidential ticket for the GOP, she lost and was seen to be a bit of a drag on the campaign in the end. Clinton at least won the popular vote. In both cases you can probably argue they'd have gained more acceptance had they been men, although in both cases they were also… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The LD battle is a lot tighter than the current betting sugges
Why? The Eurosceptic press would have been certain we were heading for disaster inside the Euro and would never have missed an opportunity to point out the economic risks of domestic policies in that context. Instead we had triumphalism because we were out of the Euro and the nice independent Bank of England said there was… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The seats down for CON hold are where there’s the least amo
On the subject of posters, yesterday I saw two of those flag-style boards put up for one house. Both were Labour. One of them had been nailed to an estate agent's sign saying 'SOLD'. Not sure what that says about the person who put them up or whether it was a (presumably unintentional) slight on Janos Toth. -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New YouGov pollings finds that a majority of those sampled thi
That's a little unkind of you Horse At my wife (81) and my (77) ages and with our underling conditions including copd, covid has always been a real concern, not just for us but our entire family, and it was evident in March that covid was not going to be defeated without a vaccine which often take years to develop It is… -
Re: Undefined discussion subject.
My gut instinct was it was a silly gimmick but within an hour or so processing it I thought it was cleverer than at first glance, but then that is because I have past experience with the industry . . . but even then it took time for me to process what was being done and why it would work. I'm glad its not been just a silly… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Trump: Pardon Me
However you look at it, there is a definite difference between getting a pounding after 13 years in government after three years of major economic turmoil, and getting an absolute horse whipping after 10 years in opposition when the government has been struggling with a sluggish economy and anaemic public sector and looked… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron and Clegg The New Blair and Brown?
Could some of the Yellow Peril on here give us an honest assessment of how much of the activist base has picked up its ball and gone home? There is much talk of the Tory grassroots withering like they have been doused in Round Up, but to what extent have the LibDem's loyal pavement pounders lost heart? That would better… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the world waits for news from the Palace the return of M
Oh for God's sake! Labour can take anything from 2 hours to 2 days. All this hoo-ha over the birth of a baby and the poor mother's labour is ridiculous. Kate would have been best advised to stay at home and sit in a hot bath until the last possible moment. But now that it's started (apparently) I hope - for her sake - it… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » UKIP becomes a one-man band once again – another extraordin
The comparison to the SNP is totally facetious. The SNP are not the same as UKIP they're a party in government. Besides the referendum is not why the SNP are doing well, the SNP did well which is why there is a referendum. Don't put the cart before the horse. In fact in the 2011 election, referendum and 2015 election the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Not only will the future of the UK be determined on Septemb
I find it a bit absurd that you are suggesting the insults and whinging from either side are 'starting' now. Allegations of deception, stupidity and gross distortion of the opponent's views and positions is hardly contained to one side in all this, and has been going on for a long time. Unless you mean they are starting… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LEAVE back in the lead with YouGov while ORB phone sees gap
It's fascinating, isn't it? The betting has been way out of line with the polling for the last month or two, with all the value on the Leave side. Really difficult to work out which is right, especially when my heart is one sided on the matter at hand. Topping up a little more at 4.1 this morning, if the polls really are… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How supporters of the main parties view ethnic minorities
They aren't acceptable from any posters. As the moderators haven't been on for a few hours, and we aren't on the site 24/7 we're reviewing all the comments and editing them accordingly when we get to them from when we last checked the site. Just because someone else has violated the site rules does not give you the excuse…