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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There’s nothing Farage could do about this but this but Nic
The Sunday Times "Allegations of vote-buying by the winning Russian and Qatari World Cup campaigns are contained in a secret database lying in the vaults of the England 2018 bid. The existence of the database and some of its allegations are revealed in a dossier compiled by The Sunday Times that has been submitted to a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Back Trump to be impeached in 2019 at 18-1
Think it's difficult to tell how the midterms will go. Even if Obamacare had been repealed, I still think progress for the Democrats would have been hard. Trump's voters are essentially like a cult, much like Corbyn's supporters are. They are unlikely to ever hold him accountable for anything. A lot of the time they appear… -
Re: Longstanding PBer, DavidL, gives his forecasts for the new year – politicalbetting.com
Currently it is taking 3 years to get cases to trial. 3 years. In some cases longer. The "scrotes" have been caught and charged. But it will take years before they are tried. And the longer the wait the greater the chance of a Not Guilty verdict. Plus the pain and stress for victims and witnesses as well as for people who… -
Re: The Scottish leader ratings suggest that LAB might beat the Tories for second place – politicalbetti
The problem with London is that the process that built it - the slow assimilation of villages into the mass - has been carefully and explicitly stopped. Stopped, without changing the other portion of the dynamic - the increasing population. At this point people start with bullshit about how everyone needs to live in tiny… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Protecting Our Democracy?
Yes, the discount rate decision was ludicrous. But the blame for the stupidity of the discount rate, which considerably increases insurance costs for everyone, lies mainly with the House of Lords (or the Supreme Court as it is today). In the late 90s, as a director at London & Edinburgh, I was on the recieving end of the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » And this afternoon Mr. Corbyn’s big speech..
There was some decent structural stuff on debt (public and household), manufacturing, house and asset price inflation. He then pledged more public housing (doesn't everyone at conference...?). All well and good and if he had left it there, although by all means throw in rail nationalisation, Trident, and some battier… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » New study finds Brits struggling under the lockdown although 8
This house isn't in his constituency, but it is where is in the area where he has lived since a child, and is where his family reside Friday to Sunday every week and have been there since before the restrictions came into place *. I think his constituents might be a bit disappointed to learn that he doesn't live there, but… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Farage looks set to lose his BBC Election Question Time slot f
Because "freedom of movement" has been maligned as meaning a three bed house with 20 Romanian men living in it, rather than the rights of all of us to make a living, enjoy our retirement or find love right across our continent. I see this response as being a more accurate one because it strips out all the toxic tabloid… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The firsrt Tory to be selected in a full all-postal primary, S
I understand what you are alleging about her. I was hoping, no doubt in vain, that you might have some evidence which might support it. To be clear, I don't particularly like her, and I think she has been flakey on Brexit. I very much disagree with her in that she voted against the deal, and therefore bears some… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » TMay makes most of the front pages this morning as reports con
That isn't true. The ERG have betrayed Brexit but they are not alone. All of those who voted to oppose May's deal betrayed Brexit. And they continue to do so. Unless you are the SNP and (to an extent) the Lib Dems who were elected on different platforms no MP should have voted against May's deal unless they were confident… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Tonight’s council by elections round up
Usual FT Spin - May has been clear from the start that there would be a settlement - it was the House of Lords that said legally the 'bill' would be zero - but politically we might be wise to contribute something. What I can see as sticking points: - Commitments after we have left - The Euro Turkish refugee fund - when… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Granny storming the barricades
Please don't go. Just make GE 2017/18/19/20 the pro-youth election. You have the power. Some humble proposals: Build houses in ok and even good areas, even if it reduces prices. Fund education, even if your kids / your relatives' kids are already out of the system. Please don't lecture youth on what it means to be British… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tory Keogh report offensive appears to have had no impa
Plato, I agree that the NHS issue is very much a long game strategy, although I doubt that Cameron and Osborne actually understand that, witness their tactical error on Mid Staffs. When the mid Staffs report was due, Tim Montgomerie was heavily advocating for the Govt to pile into Labour's record, Cameron did not and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Use your political forecasting skills to enter the 2016 PB
Does anyone understand why rates got cut? The fall in the pound should be expected to bring some medium term inflation, so the theory says that the next movement would be up rather than down. But hey, how much conventional economic theory has been thrown out of the window in the past 7 or 8 years? IMHO The rock bottom… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dicing with the Debt Ceiling could diminish Dollar dominanc
In other US news, Erick Erickson muttering about a third party: http://www.redstate.com/2013/10/10/house-gop-preparing-to-give-up/ It's getting quite easy to see the Republicans splintering from one end or the other, or even both. The combination of the primary system and FPTP has been quite successful at holding back the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The bigger Corbyn’s victory the greater will be his surviva
You can speculate all you want. We have a previous example of asylum seekers from the broader Middle East settling in a similar country: the Somalis going to the Netherlands. Here, 20,000 - about 40% of the total - moved to the UK once they got EU passports. And the performance of Somalis in the UK has not been the model… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The second YouGov poll in a row has the LAB lead down to ju
It's always and ever been about the economy. Labour ensured that this was the battleground with their opposition to every proposal/cut/etc. If the economy failed to recover then in would march the Eds. If it did recover, then the lack of an alternative proposal and now lack of differentiation would be a nail in their… -
Re: Just 3 of the April polls have LAB 20% or more ahead – politicalbetting.com
Oh God. The housing market has been more resilient than I thought possible in recent months. And it appears first time buyers are responsible. Clearly the rental market is in a terrible (insert swear word of choice) state and so buying is still preferable. But how are they affording it?… -
Re: Ipsos-MORI net Johnson satisfaction rating slumps to minus 46% – politicalbetting.com
This was not my view, and while I am probably as biased as you (in opposite direction) I did follow it pretty closely. This issue was largely left ambiguous by Leave, and quite deliberately. If a hard Brexit had been offered it would have scared the horses. Many people thought we would end up with an EEA solution, and I… -
Re: Rupert Murdoch’s Fox News refutes Team Trump’s voter fraud assertions – politicalbetting.com
It is, although it's an unusual type of statutory instrument in that it's subject to the "affirmative procedure" whereby it is voted on (but cannot be amended) by Parliament. It's been several decades, I think, since the affirmative procedure has come out with a "no". But there is a vote. The vast majority of SIs are…