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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Remainers of the Day. Why are pollsters consistently findi
Interesting Article from AM. If you keep finding too many Remainers in samples and this continues between pollsters then you have a real issue . Demographic changes are likely anyway to have removed the 2016 mandate if you remove other variables . Putting that aside it’s impossible to ignore that Remain has led every… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Once again Britain is split down the middle on Brexit while Yo
No. The primary reason is because of the slow and painful rebuilding of the German economy which has turned it into the world's second-largest exporter of manufactured goods while a certain Chancellor and PM ducked hard decisions and left our economy too far in debt and dependent on house prices and credit cards for… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Bad news for Theresa May as ORB brings horrible polling for he
From the perspective of say Poland, the EU has played a significant role in what is one of the miracles of our lifetime; the transfer of Eastern Europe from communism to functional capitalist economies reasonably well integrated into Europe. I have been visiting Eastern Europe from the 1980s to date, and the transformation… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Dramatic council by-election boost for UKIP in Suffolk
Tony Brown is a very popular local tradesman and so had quite a personal vote. Party loyalties are quite thin on the ground there and turnout is usually very low. In the last few years this ward has elected UKIP, Con, Lab, Independent and Haverhill Residents, all on very low turnouts. This was a plague on all your houses… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LDs gain four seats in their best night of local by-electio
Trowbridge is in SW Wiltshire and is safe as house for the Tories, but the town has been ld for ages i believe. Your premise may be true, the coalition is looking pretty nice in many ways, but I doubt results like this one are reflective of it. Had the incumbent not died the seat would have remained independent next year.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What will be Ed Miliband’s First Question in this week’s PM
It's post like that that deny a problem exists that infuriate the public so much. It is 4-5 times higher than in the 1990s and housing and infrastructure pressures in London and the South-East are acute. Neither do they like the rapid social change that has been concentrated in certain areas. We have around 400 million… -
Re: Did You Really Mean To Say This? – politicalbetting.com
A ten-month criminal investigation into London’s last Russian oligarch has collapsed after the National Crime Agency admitted its armed raid on his mansion was unlawful. Allegations of conspiring to circumvent sanctions, money laundering, fraud and perjury against Mikhail Fridman, 59, have been dropped. The NCA will have… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some Tories are getting very nervy about Starmer
He's still an infinitely better LotO than we've had for the past five years. A sensible Opposition can do a good job keeping government on their toes, something that's not been the case since 2015 with the ragged bunch of trots and anti-semites in charge. A nightmare time for SKS to be taking over though, when no-one is… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » With a possible LAB leadership in prospect Laura Pidcock could
Unison's Brexit break with Corbyn is huge. It clears the way for breaks on other issues and may mean it playing a much bigger role in the next leadership election. Pidcock - who I have been talking about on here for a while as the chosen Corbyn constinuity candidate - is close to Unite. But Unison now has more members than… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Cummings & Johnson strategy could well be dubbed as the ch
Oh, OK. I can understand the impatience, if not now, when, etc? But I can't imagine that we will see any real development until after the 2021 SP elections. There has been talk of a Corbyn-SNP alliance in the event of a hung parliament granting a referendum but that will never pass the House because significant numbers of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » HS2 might be hated by Tory activists but scrapping it could le
It appears the ONS has been underestimating EU migration for a decade or so: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-49420730 What a surprise. This analysis goes to 2016. Will we find the alleged fall in EU migration post that date was also wrong? To bring this back to topic it is yet another example of the very poor quality of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Why Mr Corbyn’s plan to win the next election by signing up
Another case, its outrageous. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/germany/11902296/Second-German-woman-evicted-from-her-home-to-make-way-for-refugees.html A woman in Germany is being evicted from her home of 23 years to make way for asylum-seekers, in the second such case to emerge. Gabrielle Keller has been… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation phone poll has CON lead down 10 points in a week to
The problem is they should have prepared the ground with some heavy artillery for months in advance about how odd and inequitable and unpredictable the current care system is. Not launch this in the middle of a GE. Bonkers. I am absolutely seething that she has taken the lifetime cap so I can't plan properly now for my… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w
My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City. First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » PB Nighthawks is now open
Speaking as a Labour candidate I'm happy with today's coverage - even the stuff about Scottish nurses paid for by £2 million Southern house-owners is good. The whole day has been on Labour's terrain - even the Tory attacks on the possible Labour policies mainly had the effect of highlighting the policies. But will it… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » How LEAVE responds to authority interventions that it doesn
As a strong Remainer, I do think the Remain campaign has been splurging out too much and too quickly on the negative arguments, the IMF and Mark Carney both so close together and used up early seems like a waste to me. There will be more and more diminishing returns. A well placed Pensions or House Price warning a week… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Lewisham East: Five take aways
This is why Merkel was monumentally stupid with her policy on immigration. If it had happened that immigrants made there way across borders to reach Germany it would have been an international scale problem. By taking them in in such large numbers Merkel has owned that policy and is continuing to pay, and her old partners… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the betting markets it’s now a 74% chance that TMay will go
I note the minister again states the Govt has contacted 150,000 business to help prepare for leaving the EU. I have been winding down my business and retired as of this month, but the Govt does not know that. My company is still registered with companies house as active with all returns up to date and I have filed… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » So TMay wins 200 to 117 – but is the margin enough?
To quote Mrs May nothing has changed. Her deal remains deader than a dodo that's been eaten by a hungry sailor, she remains resistant to remain or a second referendum so there is unlikely to be any legislation to facilitate them and the clock is ticking. How this ends is still a mystery. The nice version is that she… -
Re: Johnson’s relaxation of English COVID rules is not polling well – politicalbetting.com
It can be equally true that the pubs are packed and that millions of people haven't set foot in a pub since Covid began. There have been a range of attitudes right from the off, from the anti-vaxers and anti-maskers through to those who haven't left the house and everything in between. From now on it's up to each…