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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » In this week’s PB / Polling Matters podcast: LAB’s Brexit shif
That Lord Ahmed story is different to other recent accusations about him: ' A member of the House of Lords has been accused of exploiting his position to pursue sex with vulnerable women who asked him for help, Newsnight reveals. One woman said Lord Nazir Ahmed of Rotherham "took advantage" and began a sexual relationship… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » What should the losers do next on 24 June?
As I have been saying over the last week or so win or lose we will effectively have minority government in this country. No conceivable Conservative leader, whether it is Cameron staggering on after a win or a Leave replacement if he loses will command a majority in the House of Commons. The Tory party needs to decide… -
Re: And the walls came tumbling down – politicalbetting.com
There are plenty of Red Wall hard of thinking voters. Some of these will be working class, undoubtedly. Some of them will be comfortably middle class. Some of them will be poor. Some of them will be very well off. IQ is no respecter of social class. We are all guilty of viewing the Red Wall as a monolithic bloc. It’s… -
Re: The Met has got this very wrong and something has to change to make women feel the streets are safe
ABC.net.au - Labor's landslide victory win shows Liberal Party on brink of extinction in WA For a second time in a century, West Australians have overwhelmingly endorsed the idea of breaking away from the federation, re-electing a wildly popular Premier, whose crowning achievement during the pandemic has been shutting the… -
Re: A “baldie” to succeed Boris as CON leader – previous ones haven’t done well – politicalbetting.com
https://twitter.com/shaunwalker7/status/1508471898929258496 "A source with direct knowledge has just confirmed to me the WSJ/Bellingcat reports that Abramovich suffered symptoms of poisoning. "Roman lost his sight for several hours" and was treated in Turkey, the source said." Sounds pretty serious. Abramovich has been… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » LAB’s leadership rules will limit the number of nominees and c
It's actually a very good message. Nothing at all about the benefits of Brexit - because it's not aimed at shoring up the base of committed Leave voters, it's aimed at the large mass of people in the middle who are actually not that bothered one way or another. The slogan is "Get Brexit Done", but the real message is "Vote… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Ashcroft poll finds that the LDs have lost nearly three
There is no doubting Gove's sincerity. He wants us to have the best education system in the world. But he sends out very mixed messages. He says we have the best teachers we have ever had, but decries the colleges they were taught in as beacons of leftism; he lauds rigour, but plays fast and loose with facts; he applauds… -
Re: The big challenge with Farage’s anti-lock down party is that just 15% share that view – politicalbet
A few really useful links from across the pond that may help some of us limeys on election day and night (I never knew that 'limeys' came about because of sailors drinking lime juice to beat scurvy). First, this is a great little video clip by the excellent John King of CNN on the battleground states and when they may… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Only 3 LAB leaders have ever won overall majorities and th
I'm sure this was probably highlighted at the time, but for anyone who hasn't seen it this Sutton Trust summary of MPs educational backgrounds is interesting: http://www.suttontrust.com/wp-content/uploads/2015/05/Parliamentary-Privilege-The-MPs-2015-2.pdf Summary •Almost a third (32%) of MPs in the new House of Commons was… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling should be more bottom up rather than top down
Interesting comment from antifrank upthread which accords with my own view; I am expecting a very good speech from Ed Miliband this week, in which he pulls together the themes he has tentatively explored at previous conferences into something closer to a grand unifying theory, supported by some of the policy ideas floated… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Newark: The final day of campaigning in a battle so importa
Andy Michal Berkner, Jenrick's wife, is a Mergers & Aquisitions solicitor and partner of the London Branch of the New York based legal firm of Skadden. She is eight years older than her husband and has been with Skadden for near on twenty five years, moving to London in 2001. She states her major work accomplishment as… -
Re: Deflating Rishi Sunak, again – politicalbetting.com
Oh FFS Restoration of parliament faces downgrade to "enhanced maintenance" + debate on next steps postponed until next year. How we got here (abbreviated version)... This year has been spent working up two main options: a “full decant” of MPs into temporary accommodation while major works are carried out, versus some form… -
Re: The Number 10 party story is really cutting through to voters – politicalbetting.com
My take is this. They have been working around the clock for months on end. I wouldn't be surprised if a culture of them having regular piss up after hours on a Friday has sprung up (especially when pubs closed). Evidence of this, apparently the "awards". This was a weekly joke thing. And then Boris has given the nudge… -
Re: Biden slips sharply in the WH2024 betting after more memory lapses – politicalbetting.com
Apologies for the length of this post. Steven Edginton @StevenEdginton Exclusive: Whistleblower exposes Home Office's asylum system: "I work in the Home Office deciding whether to grant people asylum, and I am terrified that one day one of my cases will end up on the news. There has been no internal communication about the… -
Re: LAB’s betting gap over the Tories in Hartlepool now in double figures – politicalbetting.com
If the lockdown is disintegrating (and it would very much appear to be - did anyone else see those pictures from Nottingham?) then this is hardly a surprise. The most vulnerable have already got the bulk of the protection that they are going to from the vaccines; three weeks after the schools all went back, cases,… -
Re: So far the polling’s not looking bad for LizT – politicalbetting.com
News Flash - my morning paper (Seattle Times) tells me that an old housemate of mine, Roger Nyus, has been nominated by President Biden to serve as US Ambassador to several former British possessions in the Caribbean, namely Barbados, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Antigua and Barbuda, Dominica, Grenada, and St. Vincent… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Letter to Laura. Does Momentum want to help Jeremy control the
I think it's crazy to talk about "the interersts of the under 50s" as if they were one homogenous group. Even crazier than those articles that say all millennials love foreign travel and avocado on toast. There is a vast spectrum of all views at all ages. As you say, I have already made the point that the young and middle… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » After the debates, a plethora of polls and Andrew Neil – a CON
Went out to Rileys in Pimlico for the Joshua fight and Tory majority 1.4, got home and it is 1.34. Biggest move in a couple of hours for many a week. Boris has negotiated the final debate, postal votes are nearly all sent and final mega polling day is done. I think the Tory campaign has been good not great and he deserves… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Amber Rudd now clear third favourite in the CON leader bettig
I've been playing it for the last few hours - it's definitely a game that won't be for everyone and its on a very slow boil, but my initial impression is if it lives up to its promise it could be very good indeed, even though I am not normally a fan of particularly 'realistic' games or mods in things like Fallout. Of… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Gove could be set to play the role of Brutus to Dav
What have you been smoking ? I put a flyer through some busy professionals door, saying I will put together his flat pack for £20 an hour, and he phones me up and say he has two bedroom cabinets, how long will that take, I say 2 hours, £40 and he says "Your on!". Where is the dishonesty, a clear offer was made and…