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Re: Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting – politicalbetting.com
Frank Skinner has some thoughts on that. https://www.theguardian.com/stage/2022/jul/25/frank-skinner-standup-comic-free-speech-poetry-comedy-laddish-image ...“I do wonder what all the fuss is about,” he says, dismissing the idea that modern comedians have their free speech stifled. “I don’t think there’s ever been a time… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » At this critical time reflections on “Cultivating Democracy”
Afternoon all :) Thanks, as always, Cyclefree for an interesting piece. My late mother always said the end of civilisation began when they got rid of the park keepers because it showed that once the cost of looking after the park was deemed more important than the unquantifiable beauty, sense of community and identity a… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Britain’s brittle stalemate
Blairs are created, not born. So, it is an interesting exercise to create the next Blair (who will disappoint, after election victory after election victory) The Blair for 2022 would be no fan of the EU, but very critical of the way Brexit has been implemented by the Tories and how it has affected "my constituents". He… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Labour’s “Get Clegg” decapitation strategy fails to impress
The demographic trends in london and the south east are not straightforward. The boris 'doughnut' thing is overstated - he also cleaned up in inner west london (h+f, k+c and westminster) and in rich or white working class areas of outer london. In other bits of outer london eg Enfield and Harrow, the trend has been towards… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview: March 13th 2014
We have now arrived at the point that Obamacare does not resemble at all the bill passed by Congress. The White House has unilaterally changed Obamacare almost 30 times. We were told that the employer mandate and individual mandate were essential to Obamacare, and the administration argued to the Supreme Court that the tax… -
Re: Rhetoric meets reality. What will Reform voters make of this? – politicalbetting.com
The Telegraph has the full judicial exchange on the Afghans: Mr Justice Chamberlain When you are dealing with public expenditure of that magnitude [£7billion]…it's not possible to lose that amount of money down the back of the sofa. It's not secret intelligence programmes - it's putting real people up in real accommodation… -
Re: Some Predictions For 2021 – politicalbetting.com
The Lancet was heavily involved in the MMR scandal, and kept promoting the pseudoscience around it long past the time when it had been conclusively demonstrated to be fraudulent. That did a huge amount of wholly unnecessary damage to vaccines in general. Indeed, it’s where much of the resistance to Covid vaccines… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson wonders how much we can trust the referendum
That's true, but it also depends on there being a stable pattern at all. The more leftward elements of the Yes campaign - the Radical Independence Campaign in particular - have been targeting the council housing schemes - the Labour core heartlands - and pushing for voter registration by previous non-voters with some… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Tories take the lead in ICM Euros poll and my 56-1 bet
Simply not true. Those on average wages and below have already been ahead in real terms as a result of the increase in personal allowances. The better paid have been squeezed and I would not dispute that the best paid have done best of all. You also need to take account of the massive reductions in housing costs arising… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It could be that front-runner, Jim Murphy, is too divisive
I agree they are bully boy tactics, but what they pick up on is not sincerity, but stunts gone wrong. If Milliband had walked past that Roma beggar, there would have been no story. If he hadn't decided to show what a man of the people he was by chowing down on a bacon sarnie, no story. He needs to stay in character -I… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf for tonight on Dave “being pumped up”
GDP has been bigged up to such an extent that variations in it are now overemphasised. Its possible that today's GDP data will be the equivalent of the 1970 trade data which supposedly influenced the election. Incidentally can you remember when GDP became regarded as so important - I suspect it must have been when Brown… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Chancellor Philip Hammond is said to believe that for the mome
I do indeed live near Cambridge. And you are right: there are less well-off (and even deprived) areas of the city. Many of those people would not have been directly helped by EU projects - I cannot name any for that ward directly, but it's not an area I've researched. However intangibles will have helped them. Many will… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Ed’s big day – But is the big news of the day just outside
What is it with need a policy idea....insulation.....it get pulled out more often than any other policy. Now it might be sensible to get every bodies homes insulated (you have to question why that isn't already the case that most of the housing stock hasn't been, given Gordon used to promise it every year), but you ever… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A Labour Twitter thread with a sting in the tail from Michael
Still I've had worst first dates. A female Sumatran tiger at London Zoo has been killed by a potential mate as the pair were being introduced. Melati, 10, died on Friday during her first meeting with seven-year-old Asim - whose name means "protector" in Arabic. They had been housed in adjoining enclosures for the last 10… -
Re: The extraordinary change in Johnson/Starmer leader ratings in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
The evidence from that has been...interesting. Yes I did want to have an affair with her. Yes I did rub myself up against her. Yes I did purport to sack her by text. Yes, I did try to have her put out of the house she was renting from me. But she is vindictive and this is all so unfair. -
Re: The Pressure of the Populist Right – politicalbetting.com
More Elmbridge reminiscences. A couple who were friends of my parents sold their house in Esher to Errol Brown, of Hot Chocolate, who was discussed on this board a few days ago. By coincidence the wife died the same week as Errol. Chris Tarrant, who has already been mentioned, is generally regarded as an a**e by locals and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The world is becoming even more partisan
Give your opponent an inch, and he takes a mile. Britain voted by a slim majority for Brexit, 18 to 17 million, and the outcome looks likely to be complete realignment away from the European social model and toward America. The USA voted for a Democrat House in 2018, pretty healthily, and their only meaningful action has… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The booby trap. Prime Ministers under the Fixed Term Parliamen
No. Theresa May sought to impose her deal on Parliament. It resisted. Boris Johnson has sought to impose no deal on Parliament. It is resisting. Other options have barely been explored yet. If a majority of the House of Commons wants an early election, it will happen. If it does not, or not yet, then the MPs who do not… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Brexit – the Guilty Men?
That's a very good point. He has been rather let off the hook for his disastrous "shadow the Mark" policy, which led to out of control inflation, followed by a slamming on of the breaks, and to the horrible early 1990s recession when house prices fell almost 40% in real terms. (They fell 13.2% in absolute terms, but there… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » There could be a swing-back to the incumbent government – t
Due to my exams I missed the employment data, glad to see (my own situation notwithstanding...) any threat that the gains might stop has been pushed back a little further. Similarly the economic inactivity stats, which were threatening to account for much of the decline in unemployment, are level. Finally the Exchequer can…