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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Marf on the BBC and the Thatcher Funeral
In Churchill's first speech to the House on 13th May 1940 after becoming Prime Minister, he had this to say:I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat. We have before us an ordeal of the most grievous kind. We have before us many, many long months of struggle and of suffering. Churchill was clear that no-one… -
Re: The vaccine wars shouldn’t surprise us given how COVID has blighted life around the world – politica
Point 3 is of particular interest for the future and sounds like a very good idea. Re Cummings, I was approached anonymously last year by someone claiming that the Barnard Castle trip was all about meetings with Glaxo Smith Kline and not eye trips or whatever. No idea whether that is true but it is certainly the case that… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ paradoxical leadership contest
Thanks for the thought provoking article Tissue Price. I think you are bang on the money with that assessment of both Boris Johnson and Theresa May at this point. But where I differ from your analysis is on George Osborne, I have never bought into the idea that he ever wanted the Leadership, but rather that he wanted to… -
Re: Another demonstration of Tory ruthlessness – politicalbetting.com
🤭 Look at Today’s Telegraph front page “Sunak must put the country before the markets”. Do you know what this argument is - what is the right thing for the country? Is it straightforward as just give the dammed markets whatever they ask for to keep them pacified, and carry on business as usual? Then I tell you, in all… -
Re: Meanwhile in Northern Britain the SNP are revolting – politicalbetting.com
Reeves is worse than Truss, but it's the boiled frog effect. Truss had awful timing with her quite trivial tax changes, lumping them in with the energy bill support and within 24 hours of the Bank of England switching to QT. So the bond market reacted quite rapidly and people panicked and she took ownership of all the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » A 14% CON lead would give Johnson the margin to stuff the ERG
A lot of Lib Dem support has always been prompted by "a plague on both your houses" attitudes towards the main two parties, and some of that attitude also motivated Brexit. Politics is emotional more than rational for most people, including for most people who have convinced themselves that they are motivated rationally. -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The spread markets the Tories down a touch but still heading f
Parkhead, Glasgow in the late 1980s. Half derelict tenements with people living in them, no windows. Groups of very young kids roaming the streets in tatty clothes. It looked like a bombsite. It has all been demolished now, and new housing built on that site, but I can still remember how bloody bleak it was. -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The signs are that UKIP will get a pasting in the May 4th elec
'People like...' He is not the only pro-European on the right, but he's the most distinguished who's still in the House of Commons. In fact being pro-Europe was the mainstream Conservative position for decades. This has now been overturned by a sustained campaign from radicals with a blinkered view of sovereignty that is… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Conservatives’ election chances. Ten Seats To Watch
Excellent article by Alastair. I suspect Caroline Flint will hold and I am sure there are many Tories like me who would love to see her cross the floor of the house. I also think Paul should hold East Renfrewshire because he has worked it hard and it is home to the overwhelming majority of Scotland's Jewish community. I… -
Re: Can Starmer get a conference boost? – politicalbetting.com
This may be the most consequential reshuffle appointment peeps. Mr Think Tank and Levelling Up is Gove's deputy: "Neil O'Brien has been made a junior minister at the Ministry of Housing, Communities and Local Government." See:… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » As the daily death rate edges closer to 1,000 YouGov finds str
FPT Despite all the talk of normalcy bias, this forum doesn’t provide much evidence of its existence, at all. Indeed exaggeration bias is the normal state of affairs - and I don’t (only) mean that in a bad way. Many of the articles, and much of the discussion here, has always ranged over improbable events which don’t then… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Sanders’ odds are far too short for Iowa: no-one should be odd
The estimated electoral crossover age (at which support for the Conservatives passes that for Labour) is now only 39. Fortysomethings may no longer be in the first flush of youth but in no reasonable estimation are we "old." The left's support is simply slipping away amongst everyone who has accumulated significant assets,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » If this US YouGov polling is correct then the chances of a
I've been asked to sign this petition Please discourage David Cameron the Prime Minister of our great country from tarnishing his office by using the despatch box to administer insults to other members of the House of Commons during PMQs..... ....Why is this important? Having watched PMQs for decades, today, 24th Feburary… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » David Herdson on whether Farage has done enough to win a pl
I wonder if most of those with talent and potential have already emigrated laving behind the unemployable who are never going to leave because they have no greater prospects anywhere else. Perhaps the reason the education results in Wales are do awful is down to the raw materiel the teachers have to work on. As for new… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Overall Majority now an even hotter favourite for GE15
Charles Your use of hyperbole on the last thread merely outlined the weakness of your argument. I'm well aware of the long term nature of rebalancing the economy and that's why I'm aware of the importance of changing the public's mentality re wealth consumption and living within our means. It was Osborne who complacently… -
Re: Latest YouGov has Brexit becoming even more unpopular – politicalbetting.com
A ChatGPT aside This evening I managed to get it writing proper kinky porn. And quite good porn (I'll spare you the deets) The weird thing is, in my saved chat all this has now disappeared, while everything else we have discussed survives. This feels very much like a human has edited the convo. Yet that is surely… -
Re: If it looks like an outlier, walks like an outlier, and talks like an outlier then it probably is an
Yes, until recently a staycation was a holiday IN YOUR OWN HOUSE. If a holiday has to leave this country to be a holiday then significant chunks of our population never have a holiday. I have, as it happens, been abroad a handful of times in the last twelve years (three). But I consider holidays no less of a holiday for… -
Re: A Trump branded TV channel being by the end of next month? – politicalbetting.com
I am a normal person. Tonight I am anyway. Point is, a deal is and always has been a certainty. It's not about "bluffing" and "blinking". People only view it this way because they have more experience of card games or buying a house or doing business deals than they do of macro big ticket geopolitics. -
Re: This Daily Express WH2020 “poll” is not what it seems – politicalbetting.com
And just from the efficiency point of view it stinks. If the Secretary of State for Housing has to review and ok every bit of statue tinkering throughout England he'll soon be snowed under and there will be a bottleneck. "We heard from Jenrick yet?" "Nope." "FFS, it's been months." Absurd situation. They are killing… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » 24 hours after TMay’s exit plan announcement and Michael Gove
High home ownership rates are no guarantee of a happy population, or a booming economy. One of the big problems Italy has had is that house prices have been declining (albeit gently) since the late 1990s. The consequence of this is that Italians see their personal balance sheets shrink every month, and it discourages…