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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The other upcoming leadership contest – Who will replace Jerem
That's the problem with your theories - there is a mountain of evidence that the government has been lurching from crisis to crisis, barely able to keep its squabbling factions together, and surviving from hour to hour. There is no compelling counter evidence that May has the means, let alone the ability, to execute so… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The voters by some distance say Tony Blair will be remember
Jeremy Corbyn has been leader of the Labour Party for about 56 hours. In this time, half of the shadow cabinet quit and said they would not serve under him. The front bench team he put together is the most rag-tag-and-bobtail in the party's post-war history. He's appointed a man who believes in the overthrow of capitalism… -
Re: ECHR withdrawal in 2022? – politicalbetting.com
FPT: Taking the pensions issue first, I've actually quite a lot of sympathy with the argument that the triple lock was introduced to help boost incomes, especially for poorer pensioners, that had come to lag some distance behind wages and which were leaving a lot of oldies in poverty as a consequence. The real problem… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The MPs second job issue could have salience
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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Reshuffle
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Re: A solution to the Dorries non-resignation saga? – politicalbetting.com
The problem has never been building technology, it's always been planning permission. The American dream of buying a plot of land and building a house is literally impossible in the UK. Every inch of UK soil, including the littoral, is governed by somebody who you must ask permission to build something, and the answer is… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This will go down as one of the classic Andrew Neil intervi
On Topic: She's a good woman and head and shoulders above most modern appointments to the upper house. I sleep easier in my bed knowing a staunch liberal has been added to the revising chamber. She's good and talented enough to ride out this particular storm. Clearly the timing and choreography of her appointment and her… -
Re: Punters losing confidence that there’ll be a deal before the end of the year – politicalbetting.com
Boris Johnson is facing mounting anger from senior Conservative MPs after announcing new lockdown restrictions for Christmas which may have to remain in place for months to combat a new strain of coronavirus. The PM has been accused of deliberately delaying a decision to place millions of people in London and the… -
Re: Why Trump not winning WH2024 could be a value bet – politicalbetting.com
It's a very good call. Trump has two issues going against him. First, his legal problems. As the NYT/Siena polling over the weekend shows, a conviction moves key states from Trump's column to that of Biden. Second, the current shitshow in the House is doing the GOP no favours. It's alienating Independents and pushing them… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Predicting GE2015 – my session with YouGov’s Joe Twyman
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Re: The worst appointment since Incitatus – politicalbetting.com
The other factors are the CCHQ/Number 10 SpAds who want to recast Rishi as one of his predecessors, an in-house Australian elections consultant who has been there for several years and indeed prime ministers, and more recently the return of David Cameron, who even misguided PBers who think him a reasonable PM must admit… -
Re: Why you shouldn’t rely on Rasmussen polls – politicalbetting.com
This was his defence: Asked about the donations from The Spott Fitness, which have been declared on his MPs' register of interests, Mr Jenrick said: "As I understand it, this is a fitness company that operates in the UK. "It's a perfectly legal and valid donation under British law and we've set it out in the public domain… -
Re: If Peter Kellner is right then the back the Tories at 9s to win 150-199 seats – politicalbetting.com
On the contrary, in both the UK and the USA, debt to GDP ratios have gone up by 60% of GDP since the mid-2000s, so there is no evidence that the USA leveraged its way out of recessions while the UK sternly saved. It's true that the USA debt to GDP ratio has been persistently higher by around twenty percentage points, and… -
Re: A reminder that polling questions matter – politicalbetting.com
Good morning. Some random thoughts. 1. The manufacturing sector is a vast category. I know what the poll’s getting at, but you could be in manufacturing as an aeronautical engineer or a materials scientist for AI chips, or you could be screwing on the heads of plastic dolls on a production line or gutting fish for a frozen… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The killer polling numbers for Corbyn – the pre election Ipsos
@Pulpstar Quite right. AJ is stupidly short - Yes. Miserably predicting house price crashes has been a common practice on PB, since I joined the site many years ago. There have been such predictions pretty every year, often several times a year. It's just one of those PB idiosyncrasies – treat with caution I would say! -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Exactly a year to go before the WH2016 primaries start and
While not disagreeing that EW’s got a good chance of the nomination and, if she gets it the Presidency itself, what sort of chance hvae the Dems of recapturing the Senate next time? (I know that there’s little or no chance of the House!). Part of Obama’s problem has, surely been that, while he’s good at winning elections,… -
Re: The growing NHS waiting list is arguably the Tories’ biggest challenge – politicalbetting.com
The BBC did own the full TV rights to the Tokyo Olympics but traded them to ensure it did not miss out on future Games, the broadcaster has admitted. A deal between the public broadcaster and Discovery, which handed over the rights to thousands of hours of coverage to the American pay-TV giant, was done in 2016 with the… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The big Brexit betting divide: 53% to 47% that the UK WON’T ex
The deal was rejected again since then. The government has been replaced since then. The horse is dead. Do you want to keep flogging a dead horse or move on? -
Re: Sunak’s legacy – politicalbetting.com
That's right - but you know, Alanb, the proportion of the country's property owned by the young has fallen substantially. https://lordslibrary.parliament.uk/housing-needs-of-young-people/ ..The IFS said 35% of 25- to 34-year-olds in 2017 were homeowners, a decrease from 55% in 1997. The IFS noted that the biggest fall had… -
Re: For CON comparisons we should use the LAB/LD/GRN aggregate – politicalbetting.com
Half empty, or half full? Yesterday, while skimming through the Washington Post, I first read this column: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/06/29/tuesday-republican-primary-results/ Which has this scary headline: "The latest GOP primary results had that bad-car-accident feel". And takes a pessimistic view of…
