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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Some in the Shadow Cabinet want an early election but Corbyn,
I can' help thinking it is a huge tactical mistake to allow Boris to go to the country with a deal that the House has voted to approve. If it had all been voted down, he could have been painted as a 100% loser.... -
Re: This is what having momentum looks like – politicalbetting.com
Meloni in Italy has been pushing and supporting stay at home mothers too. The reality is the quickest way for house prices and rents to fall would be most mothers (or a few fathers) giving up full time paid work and returning to being homemakers as well as a drastic fall in immigration, not just more affordable homes being… -
Re: How long before the LAB lead is in single figures? – politicalbetting.com
Not surprising, I'd rather eat at Wetherspoons. Prezzo will shut 46 loss-making restaurants hit hard by soaring pasta and energy costs, as well as poor footfall. The Italian restaurant group said the closures would put about 810 jobs at risk. The company's utility costs have more than doubled amid surging energy prices… -
Re: Holidays can be cancelled of course – politicalbetting.com
Because of reality. For all the people frotting themselves at the thought of a Tory government drowning asylum seekers (in they of Greece and Italy), the reality has been the government block booking 3 star hotels to house them. -
Re: So Moggsy admits that voter ID WAS Tory gerrynandering – politicalbetting.com
Very dominant and with quite a few Romanian areas in south-eastern England: https://www.reddit.com/r/MapPorn/comments/121poj5/second_most_spoken_language_in_each_local/ My hypothesis is that the restrictions on EU immigration has led to lower migration to those areas where Eastern European were the main source of migrants… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » When the betting markets get it wrong boy do they get it wrong
A Norway style Brexit would have got through the House, with votes from people like Grieve, as well as a number of Labour MPs. The issue was not and never really was the kind of Brexit, it was the method. This is why May and Johnson are bad at politics. They lived in a political reality where it was necessary to work… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » No Deal or No government: the pincers close on May
A good piece, don't agree with all of it but food for thought. So: 1. A growing push across the House to vote the deal to death this year. The deal is dead and with it May's final vestige of power and authority. She can't blackmail MPs to vote for her deal by running down the clock if her deal has already been killed 2.… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » This is why you should be laying Boris as next Tory leader/PM
Well, good unless as a consequence they can't. In house price crashes several things happen that all make buying cheap houses harder (for some people) than before. 1/ Nobody knows when the crash is over until a few years afterwards, so buyers don't want to buy in case prices worsen, and discretionary sellers don't want to… -
Re: History today – politicalbetting.com
It's much more complicated than that, because it depends on the type of asset and also expectations. Without going into too much detail, you need to differentiate between financial and non-financial assets. Financial assets, like a company or a bond, are those held for the stream of cashflows that will ultimately result,… -
Re: BoJo slumps to his worst ever Opinium PM approval rating – politicalbetting.com
I suppose that might be it. Because come to think of it, my property income has been higher this year (due to buying out my sister who previously owned 50% of the house) and although my musical income has dropped to nothing my new job came with a very large pay rise. Thanks to all who replied for the clarification.… -
Re: Polling errors – politicalbetting.com
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Re: Trump bows out with the worst Gallup approval ratings ever for any President in 83 years of polling
I would be very grateful to receive IT advice re- a problem which has come to light recently. Over the last month I have been getting odd emails which appear to be in reply to messages sent by myself. In reality, such messages have not been sent by me at all! In the last 24 hours my accounts with Ladbrokes and all other… -
Re: SNP leadership – latest betting – politicalbetting.com
This piece from 2019 (pre GE) claims the number of lawyers is decreasing, though still high obviously. More political bag carriers and fewer legal people I guess, so not really an improvement. There is a long and logical tradition of kinship between lawyers and the legislature: the houses of parliament have on occasion… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Punters still make next year the favourite for TMay to stand d
Oh wow, that was easy: A clampdown has been launched targeting "foreigners [who] come to this country illegitimately and steal our benefits", home secretary John Reid has said. The plan is to stop illegal immigrants getting housing, healthcare or work. He said the UK was now "throwing out" record numbers of asylum seekers… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Just 80 days to go to the IndyRef and latest YouGov has the
@Charles My real question being what is it in the Chemicals and Pharmaceutical Sectors which has caused such rapid loss of productivity. A clue may lie in the following snippet from the publication: Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals was also top of the distribution for output per hour in 2010 (£77.7), with Wood, paper products,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Polling analysis: The big driver of Labour’s decline has no
David Axelrod, who helped President Obama to win the White House twice, will try to improve the party’s communications and presentation but will also look at Mr Miliband’s performance in front of the cameras. The party has been aware for several months that this is an issue. It has conducted focus groups in which members… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Osborne edges up further in the next CON leader betting wit
Actually you've got this completely backwards. Yes the Poverty Trap of tax + NI + loss of welfare exists. However under Gordon Brown tax kicked in from ~£5k pa and continued through to the loss of tax credits in potentially the high 20k pa. This meant that for a wide range of incomes it was not worth working extra hours or… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Thanet S & Hallam polls fail to move the markets & CON
There is a good argument to be made that today's house prices in some ways reflect demand more accurately than they did in the past. In the past it was the case that if a married man had a working wife, she had no personal allowance of her own, and instead paid his marginal rate on all her earnings. She was thus in effect… -
Re: Perhaps the government will not get the blame – politicalbetting.com
I watched a YouTube video about Gary, Indiana (essentially a suburb of Chicago) last night. It's where the Jackson 5 grew up. Gary is so named after a steel magnate whose enormous mill provided employment for the city and indeed built the city. Medium house values are $70 thousand bucks. The median for the whole of the US… -
Re: Team Curtice or Team Kellner? – politicalbetting.com
I agree - there has been a considerable crack down on the old "Language Schools" of old which flourished under Labour (that nasty Mrs May). I don't see the problem as "immigration" but "failure to keep infrastructure (housing etc) in step". You can hardly import 504,000 people (slightly less than the UK's 5th most populous…
