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Re: The Arc of History – politicalbetting.com
North Korea launching a missile isn't news. It not exploding half way, might be. It's just attention seeking from The Leader. -
Re: Truss manages to infuriate Nadine – politicalbetting.com
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Re: A Tribute Act – politicalbetting.com
I was confident that Russia was going to get a heavy defeat after their attempt to take Kviv failed. The conflict is in progress and there is no feasible mechanism to freeze it at the moment even if such a thing were desirable. In fact the Russian collapse is unlikely to be linear so there is a good chance Ukr will have… -
Re: It’s very hard to see Truss doing a U-Turn – politicalbetting.com
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Re: GE2019 CON voters give Truss a net MINUS 20% approval rating – politicalbetting.com
Unlike them I have no vested interest in trying to pretend the model is viable. -
Re: No overall majority back as favourite in the GE betting – politicalbetting.com
I've placed next PM bets on Gove at 40/1, Wallace at 25/1, Raab at 66/1 and May at 100/1 today. Value. I won't be Boris. That's just hopecasting. It could be Rishi but I'm not buying at current odds. -
Re: The Cost of Lizzing Crisis [1] – politicalbetting.com
In the 1950s, there was a reform movement in the US arguing for "responsible parties". By which the political scientists proposing it meant stronger parties, more like the British parties of that era. It was never a popular movement, and got little attention from elected officials. (At that time, the parties overlapped to… -
Re: A damning attack on Truss from ConservativeHome – politicalbetting.com
“our government (Conservative government) is boasting how much money it is wasting PAYING FUELS BILLS OF THOSE WHO COULD AFFORD IT at the same time threatening a brutal spending round where benefits may not be protected from inflation.” Is the penny dropping now? The reason why this policy is going ahead is so politicians… -
Re: Truss isn’t working – politicalbetting.com
Revisions never get anywhere near as much attention as they should. -
Re: A LAB majority becomes the election betting favourite – politicalbetting.com
Interesting conversation just now with a U.S. contact of mine. They don’t view a nuclear event as probable but are working hard to communicate precisely what the consequences would be. Both directly and indirectly. A couple of ideas floated (ha ha) one which I preferred to the other. Neither I have seen mentioned on here… -
Re: Punters now betting that Truss will be out next year – politicalbetting.com
I'm not sure what you think this thread tells us beyond any of the opinions offered by the users you've tagged in. The options listed here are purely (and admittedly) groundless speculation, and it seems obvious to me that the author has eked the Russian options out a lot, and dismissed evidence supporting the US option… -
Re: A LAB majority bet is starting to look value – politicalbetting.com
I am still waiting for evidence. If you are going to be rude to someone, you need to produce evidence to back up your assertions and statements. . I’m not allowing you wriggle room because I explained the tax cutting budget sparked the markets and IMF - but its size of our borrowing for an unnecessary bill freeze package… -
Re: YouGov has LAB with a 25% lead amongst women – politicalbetting.com
For non-finance industry PB-bods who want to understand what's going on with the bond market, and why it matters, John Redwood's blog has an interesting short piece. http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2022/09/29/bonds-and-mortgages/ If you're more interested in being outraged by Truss, I am sure Scott P has some interesting… -
Re: Kwarteng now 30% favourite for first cabinet exit – politicalbetting.com
Can't the cows try just a little harder to get milk over the line? Its SO close... -
Re: A LAB majority now a 32% betting chance – politicalbetting.com
Although not, one would have thought, improving the mental health of Vladimir Putin. It is also quite an incentive to surrender. -
Re: Starmer’s speech gets a good reception – politicalbetting.com
The freeze policy is owned by all the main parties, the Tories seem to come to it last. The problem isn’t the tax cuts and cancelled proposed tax cuts announced last Friday - the problem is the world has woken up to the fact we are going to borrow near on a quarter of a trillion for a regressive policy of freezing bills… -
Re: It’s a 41% betting chance that Truss won’t survive 2023 – politicalbetting.com
Can you explain why we have been facing financial turbulence ever since Truss was assumed to be the successor? Exacerbated at the exact moment of Kwarteng's un-funded budget giveaways? -
Re: LAB moves to its biggest ever YouGov lead over the Tories – politicalbetting.com
Did the ultra-low interest rates of recent years lead to a bonanza in business investment? If not, then there may be some problems with your assumptions. -
Re: Worrying poll findings for Truss from YouGov and R&K – politicalbetting.com
The value of your primary residence is the utility you get from living it. The price doesn’t matter until you sell -
Re: My September CON poll lead bet a looking a bit sick – politicalbetting.com
And indeed the City (and not in the manner it's rumoured Kwarteng did).