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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Another day, another 21% poll lead for the Tories, this time w
Opinium are far more reliable than Comres. Whilst Yougov is a very sound pollster , there is a clear 'house' effect apparent in its findings since last September in that it has consistently produced the lowest Labour vote share of all pollsters. Previously that was true of ICM. 23% is a new low from Yougov , but Labour has… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Take two – how would a fresh referendum play out?
Ha. In fairness their way is nuts - they certainly don't have the protection of no more contests if you win one vote. I can see several problems with that suggestion! As the most experienced elected parliamentarian, the Father of the House should be chosen. Why not the longest serving member of the Lords, Lord Denham?. He… -
Re: At GE2019 LAB was led by a man who had negative ratings even amongst those who had voted for the par
First of all, welcome! The media have an impact, thats not in doubt. I'm not sure its quite as you portray it though. Murdoch has a simple rule with politicians anywhere he owns newspapers globally - back the winners. You mentioned 40 years so lets go back over a few elections and ask why we got the result we did. 83 -… -
Re: The best Georgia run-off bet – the Democrats to take both Senate seats at a 23.3% chance – political
No. Ooohhhhhh no. It wasn’t Corbyn driving policy, like having Palestinian flags all around conference hall, and bemused why election hopes weighted down with anti semitism, nor that Labour policy’s electable in one must have constituency cost them victory in other must have constituency’s. no. It was the party what made… -
Re: Biden edges up a touch in the WH2023 betting -Trump down – politicalbetting.com
Talking of social mobility, my family has been researching our past. Turns out in the 12th century our direct ancestors owned an enormous estate near Helford, Cornwall, on Frenchman’s Creek (one of the most beautiful places in the UK, if not all of Europe). We owned lots of early tin mines, smelting houses etc. The Manor… -
Re: If Labour wants to win in 2029 they need the UK to become a nation of frozen margarita drinkers
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Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The real challenge for UKIP now is getting their insurgency
Some good news to relieve the gloom The First Estimate of Q4 2013 GDP counter-intuitively reported a fall in Construction output of -0.3%. I stated at the time that this looked wrong and would be a candidate for future upward revision. DavidL made similar comments. The ONS this morning released its report on Construction… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Let’s end the nonsense of sterile PPBs and have proper paid
Well Robert Chote has finally published his commentary on the ONS Public Finance Figures. It appears Roger has been spilling the beans and not observing PB Carlton House Rules: some cash receipts received in the early part of 2013-14 relate to economic activity in 2012-13 and will be accrued back to that year. April PAYE… -
Re: Why Labour would be crazy to replace Starmer – politicalbetting.com
Evening all :) This evening's announcements, while not unexpected and not unwelcome, leave me slightly troubled. The world has changed, whether we like it or want it or not. I sense an undercurrent of trying to put the genie back in the bottle and party like it's on sale for £20.19 but the world has changed. There won't be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Harry Hayfield previews today’s Ynys Môn Assembly By-Electi
Break! Into! Quick! Time! The good news of the Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI for July has already been announced to PB. But the density of favourable indicators needs to be stressed. Not only is the index at a 29 month high, but both output and orders are up with price pressures subdued. The growth is broadly based with… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Two thirds of those polled back the key lockdown easing measur
The whole thing since easing began has been a farce. Utter farce. Now it's 'only meet in groups of six in gardens BUT you can go through the house to get to that garden, you CAN use the bathroom (just wipe surfaces) and you CAN share a BBQ, just be careful etc etc. None of this is remotely enforceable or will be followed… -
Re: Undefined discussion subject.
' Thirteen people were found "absolutely packed" into a three-bedroom house in Newcastle, the BBC has found. The bath had been ripped out and a bunk bed put in its place, officials found when they visited the property in Ponteland Road, Blakelaw, in January. None of the people, who were restaurant workers, knew each other,… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On a day when TMay’s future has been in the news the last nine
A couple of comments, particular with regards to people getting on the property ladder at £20k/home. Firstly, it can't be the case, for any reasonable period of time, that property transacts at less than rebuild cost (unless, of course, you have a shrinking population, and therefore shrinking demand for housing). If houses… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your sortable & searchable PB guide to Labour’s top 80 CON
I have no idea what cash assets EdM has and don't really care, to be honest. If people have earned their money, good for them. But I do think that it is absurd to say that you are worth a million, say, purely on the basis of some hypothetical value of a house, which may be mortgaged. And even sillier to borrow money… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Michael Bloomberg to spend $80m helping the Democrats in key r
I think stuff like this is perhaps of more relevance (though Schmidt has been on the brink for some time): https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/today-i-renounce-my-membership-longtime-gop-strategist-steve-schmidt-announces-hes-leaving-his-party/2018/06/20/5918d7ee-747d-11e8-b4b7-308400242c2e_story.html “29 years and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The government should resign if the Courts prevent it from inv
I suspect that's why the Civil Service will have been strongly against it...... Apart from giving the suppliers of blood pressure medication a welcome fillip I doubt very much has changed. Either the Supreme Court will look at this and go 'ooooh, too political' and back the government, or will back the lower court, in… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Your first guide to GE2020 – some of the seats LAB will hav
Interesting. It suggests removing both Houses of Parliament's right to veto the draft Order in Council giving effect to the boundary changes (Parliamentary Constituencies Act 1986, s. 4(3)), and imposing a duty on the Secretary of State to submit a draft of the Order to Her Majesty for approval. The difficulty will be… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The Westminster – Edinburgh confrontation over the currency
Main monetary policy instrument is interest rates... maintaining interest rates at a historic low has prevented the recorrection of house prices that would have been the natural corollary of the recession and the fall in real incomes, whereas more realistic rates would have led to a cycle of default, repossession and… -
Re: politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » It would be a mistake for Sadiq Khan to attack Zac Goldsmit
Just being ugly is not a good reason, but that is probably a catch all for badly designed to the extent of incentivising community decline and decay. It's not so much the design of houses but the planning of the communities which was wrong. High rise does not equate to high density since there has to be lots of empty space… -
Re: If this is what happens in the midterms then the Republicans are in for a shellacking
Just tell people what you know, and what you want them to do (or not do). Something like: "Police are investigating a stabbing incident at x place, at y time. A man in his approx age has been arrested and is helping police with their inquiries. We are not looking for anyone else in connection with this incident at this…
