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If Hamilton was in England, then it would appear to be ideal territory for a large Reform vote share: "The town centre is dying", says Linda Smith, who has lived there for 15 years. "W… (View Post)

[For the Hamilton by-election campaign,] Reform is testing out something else too: its attacks on net zero. Farage’s speech on Monday was in Aberdeen, a three-hour drive on the opposite side of Scotl… (View Post)

The Scotland sub-sample in the poll is back to the usual pattern of SNP being way ahead (at 38%) of all other parties, but Reform is still in a strong second place (at 26%). One oddity in the sub-sam… (View Post)

It's actually not too different from the exit poll. The final result will likely be something like 50.95%. 51.11% Nawrocki, 48.89% Trzakowski with 98.56% reporting It's wrong to just project linearly… (View Post)

"if I had to bet on it, if there were an election tomorrow Reform’s lead would be closer to 2% than the 9%." And I am willing to bet that the non-voters will show up at the polls, just like… (View Post)