Part 1 The MRP had a 7pt (rounding) lead for Reform over Plaid The by-election had an 11 point lead for Plaid over Reform The polls were way out. Part 2 MRP has great difficulty coping with things li… (View Post)

But it's a long way to there, surely? (View Post)

(Technically it's a positive feedback loop, even if the feedback is negative. Terms like "reinforcement loop" are perhaps better in this context) (View Post)

It also puts a dampener on the ReformWave polling. If polling doesn't cover tactical voting (and I don't think it does, at least not yet) and it exists enough to turn a 7pt Reform win in MRP to a 11p… (View Post)

Stilton, however, will remain true-blue. (View Post)