When I voted the polling station worker seemed most dubious that my photo ID was actually of me (it was my passport photo, and I've never had a problem with it at an airport), but grudgingly let me v… (View Post)

I've voted now. After a lifetime of living in marginal seats, and very often voting against the candidate or party I liked least, I felt able to vote for the party I prefer this time - who will certa… (View Post)

Lots of predictions today. My final UK-Elect forecast (which I posted on another thread just before this one started) shows Labour 426 seats, Conservative 116, Liberal Democrat 57, SNP 17, Reform UK … (View Post)

I suspect that a lot of things are tunable parameters in some of the models. (View Post)

Everybody makes different-but-plausible forecasting assumptions even when the underlying sample data is similar - which it often isn't. Probably somebody will be right, but it might well be by accide… (View Post)