Wanted to give this a more detailed response. These are good points, and reasons why I do not regard Biden as a certainty. But most of them are long-term factors - if they influenced people to switch… (View Post)

The polls show that white suburban women have switched en masse to Biden. Those are GOP bedrock voters, not your typical Green or Libertarian. It’s easy to forget just how close Trump’s wins in the M… (View Post)

People are over compensating for what happened in 2016. Biden isn’t an overwhelming favourite but the most likely outcome is a fairly comfortable wins for the Dems on a similar level to 2012 (View Post)

Quite why Boris expects me to resume spending 2 hours of my working day squeezing onto an overcrowded train and paying £200/mth for the privilege is beyond ne (View Post)

Nate Silver is trolling HYUFD https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1293281615704203272?s=21 (View Post)