david_herdson

Reform's recent by-election performance suggests national polling is pretty much ballpark right. They're not doing badly, particularly when you consider that they'll have minimal campaign data and ot… (View Post)

That might be valid if they were a reliable partner: they're not. Even then, actions have to have consequences. Rewarding naked aggression not only encourages a repetition from the same party, once t… (View Post)

I will believe this when I see it. Trump's word has been proven again and again to be meaningless, and the terms of the 'deals' offered have been so extortionate as to be unsignable. Now, maybe someo… (View Post)

Although that's a general election projection. It's normal for by-elections to 'overshoot' polling swing due to there being less cost to protesting, less at stake in the vote, and - therefore - less … (View Post)

By 'probably' were talking roughly in the 0.01% to 0.1% range, from that? Looks like the three sigma range is close enough that there's still an outside change within the range of plausibility it cou… (View Post)