Opinium is no longer an opinion poll in the traditional sense - it is not a statement of current voting intention but rather a prediction of future voting intention having taken account of expected '… (View Post)

If Corbyn stands as an Independent , he is very likely to win with the active support of most of the Islington North CLP. After close of nominations he might well receive endorsement from John Mcdone… (View Post)

Some comment from James E on UKPR2 re- today's Redfield & Wilton poll - 'There are some freakish-looking cross breaks in the tables behind this poll. R&W have unusally high LD vote retention … (View Post)

Signs of green shoots by early 2010 failed to save Gordon Brown. Moreover, Thatcher would not have won re-election 2 years into the 1979 Parliament - ie mid-1981. (View Post)

I am no fan of Callaghan , but his Government did not 'end at the IMF'. The IMF was called in late 1976 - based on inaccurate data which when subsequently revised implied there had actually been no n… (View Post)