I note a correction in the second edition. If an empire is plastic, it won't snap. It'll just deform into a state from which it can never elastically recover to its former self. Snapping requires it … (View Post)

No, its not. I think it's more about how Sturgeon's attempt to provoke a constitutional crisis with the UK government has gone off at half cock because, while she clearly thinks that her own view is … (View Post)

There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and … (View Post)

The value of looking at a data series from one pollster only is that, barring any change in methodology, the trend can be read independently of any house effects, whether it is a Tory or Labour lean.… (View Post)

The Blue Wall polling, with change compared to GE 2019 % share for those 40 constituencies taken from the R&W report, is as follows: Labour 42% (+21%) Con 32% (-18%) LD 19% (-8%) I read the impli… (View Post)