No, its not. I think it's more about how Sturgeon's attempt to provoke a constitutional crisis with the UK government has gone off at half cock because, while she clearly thinks that her own view is … (View Post)

There's a very clear R&W downward trend in Tory support since about April 2022 which has continued under Sunak. They have been losing about 1% per month. It was masked by the Truss implosion and … (View Post)

The value of looking at a data series from one pollster only is that, barring any change in methodology, the trend can be read independently of any house effects, whether it is a Tory or Labour lean.… (View Post)

The Blue Wall polling, with change compared to GE 2019 % share for those 40 constituencies taken from the R&W report, is as follows: Labour 42% (+21%) Con 32% (-18%) LD 19% (-8%) I read the impli… (View Post)

Of those who have so far said they are standing down Nick, there are19 Tories including Hancock. 12 Labour, 1 Plaid. Doesn't yet seem to be an exceptional number of Tories, but the incentives for ann… (View Post)