Thanks. My guesstimate is around 20%. I think he has a chance but I don't think the current Betfair odds are far off. Would be interested to know what others think. (View Post)

His exquisitely tuned political antennae have alerted him to the fact that there are people in his party who don't like the EU? (View Post)

That's how I see it. I don't think Sanders can do it from here but there is still the outside chance of Hillary becoming unviable. (View Post)

Yes, that's a good point. Much as I despair of those people they are numerous, as you say, and mostly well-meaning (could I be any more patronising?) I think many of them are going to be very disillu… (View Post)

Yes. However Labour will then need to persuade swing voters that its flirtation with the hard left really is over. That is going to be hard and is going to involve gestures, similar to Blair's scrapp… (View Post)