FPT, but relevant here: Isn't this the elephant (and donkey) in the room? Pretty much all UK pollsters are trying to get it right, even when they don't succeed. I get the vibe that quite a lot of US … (View Post)
Two curious things about things that can't go on forever. The first is that they can persist, in a kind of stable instability, for a very long time. The other is that, when they flip, it happens pret… (View Post)
See also the sad stories of Colditz prisoners who feigned madness as part of their escape plans. Or someone like Calvin Robinson who seemed like palusible enough clergy material when he visited the v… (View Post)
A problem overlooked is almost as good as a problem solved. Conversely, quantifying a problem makes things worse. The political problem with the boats is that they're visible. (The real problem with … (View Post)