We had this conversation yesterday. The boffins who have looked at the changes on support agree with you. As to the motives, the classy thing to do is to ask people "why do you think that?"… (View Post)

Trouble is, none of that matters. It's vibes, and has been for most of the last decade. (View Post)

Not really. Take Runcorn. In 2024, Reform and the Conservatives got about 7000 each, and Labour got 22000. In the by-election, Reform got 12000 and the Conservatives 2000. With Labour's vote wel… (View Post)

Nah, not me. Pointy-head boffins at the British Election Study; https://www.britishelectionstudy.com/uncategorized/looking-for-labours-lost-voters/ Here's the key picture, because I like swirly … (View Post)

Unlikely. All the data we have are that there are very few Lab to Ref switchers since last year. It's mainly Lab to Lib/Green/shrug and Con to Ref. Can the Conservatives win back people who, des… (View Post)