I agree, and the betting was indeed out of line with the polling as you describe. But would also say that part of the impact is that Leave was obviously a more consequential vote in terms of post war… (View Post)

Same with all conference calls. 15 minutes of the IT guy fiddling with wires to resolve a camera problem; 15 minutes of idle chit-chat ("How's Jill? What about the dogs?"); 15 minutes … (View Post)

Two points with that graph. Firstly, that movement at the end (up for Macron, down for Le Pen) is indeed the second round debate as mentioned. Secondly, you see the bold yellow and blue dots at the e… (View Post)

Two other polls covering the same period had Macron on 56%, leading by 12%. Hypothetical polling has been incredibly stable on this. Le Pen has never led, and the range has been extremely narrow - he… (View Post)

Inflexible and a bit thick? (View Post)