It seems to me that nobody wants to get it at this moment (nor do they want their preferred successor to get it) as they'd be doomed to heavy defeat. So the only options on the table would be a … (View Post)

I get why it's difficult to model tactical voting in an MRP, and maybe I rather than the pollsters will have egg on my face rather than them. But a lot of the projected results are not credible … (View Post)

Or if he calls one immediately and everyone votes. (View Post)

The point with an MRP is that it isn't UNS, though. So it is in fact meant to be modelling what particular demographics are doing, and applying it to the demographics of the area - there are reg… (View Post)

On topic, whilst Sunak is in trouble, comparing his perceived (un)likelihood of winning the General Election with that of Truss or Johnson (or indeed himself) a couple of years ago is comparing apple… (View Post)