In statistical terms, the size of the population relative to the sample isn't particularly important. So a poll of 800 people in the fairly small country of Belgium is less likely to be accurate… (View Post)

No, but we should probably listen to them when they talk about the law, and to doctors when they talk about health, and to structural engineers when they talk about bridges. If we want to maintain th… (View Post)

As I say, there are routes to victory that don't include Pennsylvania and which aren't incredible. It's just that if my crystal ball told be Biden misses the second closest state, and … (View Post)

He definitely doesn't need to win Ohio, which wasn't that close in 2018. And there are routes to victory not passing through Pennsylvania. But Pennsylvania was the second closest Trump stat… (View Post)

I think the point HYFUD is making is that these are basically states Biden needs to win. So if he has a narrow swing state 2% lead on a 7% national lead then he can't afford any movement back to… (View Post)