I wonder whether debate organisers will follow the approach of HIGNFY with Roy Hattersley years ago, and replace Trump at the next debate with a tub of lard? (View Post)

People who run for President by definition have the ego to believe they can win. The political battlefield is also scattered with the corpses of people who decided to bide their time. Think, for exam… (View Post)

Definitely true that people overestimate the predictiveness of the last result and underestimate the one(s) before. I've mentioned before that, in 2012, Obama did better in the election than in … (View Post)

That is a picture of an incredibly stable race, with both candidates moving in their own narrow corridor of support. For all the drama of 2020 - the COVID crisis, the economic crisis, the Democratic … (View Post)

Have to say this feels like wishful thinking more than objective betting. The CNN poll yesterday is the only one that was within a whisker of 58% for Biden (albeit some include "don't know&… (View Post)