2010 is a bit different as Democrats lost half a dozen Senators and just had a big enough majority to hold on despite that. The Democrats now have no margin for any losses. I agree 2018 is a decent c… (View Post)

A very interesting article. I suspect the key issue here is that a strong political CV is less important in the Republican Party now than a Twitter following and loyalty to the Orange'Un. I susp… (View Post)

This is just nonsense. Firstly, Pecresse very clearly (and crudely) tacked right, and that's when she lost it after a strong start for the reason I explained. Playing the Great Replacement card … (View Post)

That's a total misunderstanding of how Pecresse's campaign faltered. She initially prospered as an "echo of Macron" as you put it, and appeared late last year to have a good chanc… (View Post)

I think the variability is almost exactly the same because both are determined by lunar calendars. So the maximum difference between earliest and latest is essentially a lunar month (but a shade more… (View Post)