The big mistake this makes is to think that the only behavioural change in early March was that people started washing their hands. In fact, the level of concern was such that people had substantiall… (View Post)

Absolutely right. I'm not saying both procedures in Chinese (and other labs) and the operation of wet markets aren't valid issues in the aftermath of this. But it's also very obvious i… (View Post)

The point of tracing apps is that people need to be on the same system to know whether they have been in close contact with someone who has subsequently been diagnosed. So you need the same app (or a… (View Post)

Yes. And it isn't only the logistics of it. Johnson has a very comfortable working majority, and a compliant Parliamentary party having purged the most likely troublemakers. What possible credib… (View Post)

Prof Cowley is absolutely right. That pattern of that campaign had Labour in the low 30s and Tories high 30s, then the Cleggasm, before a fairly long, stable period of Labour in the high 20s, Tories … (View Post)