Is Leave.EU really a membership organisation anyway? I thought it was just a campaign group funded largely by Arron Banks and other individuals who have entirely earned the money they donate and have… (View Post)

Looking at their Senate forecasts, I believe 538 use 10% as their cut-off. So Cornyn is "favoured" (88%) to win Texas over Hegar (12%) whereas Hyde-Smith (91%) is "clearly favoured&quo… (View Post)

On topic, there are two possibilities that could lead to punters giving Trump a better chance than polls suggest. Firstly, it could be that the polls are systematically quite a long way off. I think … (View Post)

Applying your dubious logic that the most recent poll "shows" who is going to win what, Biden would win Texas, North Carolina and Iowa, as well as Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan (easi… (View Post)

On topic, and aware of the fact I was pretty dismissive of his 2024 nomination chances last night if Trump loses, I though Pence did well last night within the context of what he was aiming to do. If… (View Post)