Larger majority does not always mean the same as safer in practice. Valleys seats have been Labour for generations - the electorate is very stable (not a lot of people moving in or out), voting Labou… (View Post)

Very often, you can email bookies (at least the ones offering some constituency odds) and they'll offer odds on your constituency of interest. Well worth doing if you have an inside track, as th… (View Post)

Game changer. As the old adage goes, where goes Sneckyeat South Ward, so goes Sneckyeat North Ward. (View Post)

I'm not sure you're right that you might as well make numbers up. A poll (or at least an average of polls) today is a reasonable central estimate of the situation in a couple of months, but… (View Post)

It varies a good deal, I suppose. But it's certainly not uncommon for poorer countries (i) to have recent and unsuccessful experience of radical socialism; (ii) to be relatively socially conserv… (View Post)