By 1%. For comparison, Miliband beat Cameron by 7% in the equivalent elections in 2012. As Matt says, it's all opinion with this sort of counterfactual. FWIW, I think the Tories would have won c… (View Post)

The success of a trading relationship isn't defined by the size of the surplus, and indeed running a deficit isn't a failure in itself. Volume is the key thing. Each one of those exports AN… (View Post)

As importantly, the Tories are hardly going to brand their own policies as an "assault on working class communities" and people who voted Conservative in 2019 have a strong reason not to bu… (View Post)

I'm not sure that's necessarily right, although I see the logic. The point here is that the BBC probably could have justified the difference in pay. It isn't at all impossible to have … (View Post)

Worth noting that Iowa polls historically haven't been very accurate at all, so I'm not sure it's a huge loss. The unusual format is part of this - a lot depends on organisation and mo… (View Post)