Punters like a longshot win, but sometimes the boring, predictable outcome is every bit as boringly predictable as it looks. The polling on Macron is really stable. He isn't popular - indeed con… (View Post)

I broadly agree that a major comeback for the Lib Dems in the SW will be difficult and slow, BUT there may well be a degree of reversion to the mean in 2024 as Brexit continues to recede as a definin… (View Post)

Putin did get a fair amount from Trump including a reasonably free hand in Syria, very little pushback on election interference and cyber-security, a shift in the attitude of Republican voters in fav… (View Post)

I've got plenty of criticisms of Johnson, but this just isn't one. Johnson saying he's not in favour of Putin being assassinated is (a) completely unsurprising - leaders of countries j… (View Post)

I enjoy the irony that, for 100 years, the maximum five year term of a UK Parliament was set down by the Septennial Act. (View Post)