There are several reasons why I continue to think there is value betting against Trump at anything above 20% implied probability to be GOP nominee: 1. Trump's statements now about standing in 20… (View Post)

An interesting perspective, but isn't the ideal someone who can adapt to either? At times, Starmer has in fact made an impact. Through much of 2020, he made decent progress and was rebuilding La… (View Post)

The Romsey by-election gain in a deep blue seat happened under Kennedy. There were basically just very few by-elections in Tory seats in Kennedy's time as leader simply because the Tories had re… (View Post)

On topic, I agree May 2024 is the most likely General Election date by some margin. The Conservatives have a large majority, enabling them to get even controversial legislation through with some ease… (View Post)

I have a certain amount of sympathy for the bloke as it was many years ago and he apparently declared it to the Conservative Party. But the law is clear regarding PCCs - any conviction for an offence… (View Post)