Mercer will potentially be in a spot of bother should he win narrowly in July. Many here will recall Phil Woolas being unseated by an election petition in 2010, due to making false statements about a… (View Post)

I had a conversation at the pub with a Tory activist I bumped into last night. He spent a while going on about what a waste of space Sunak is, how the Tories had made a total hash of the past few yea… (View Post)

Aren't all bets about information asymmetry? If you have more and better information than me, you win. If I have more and better information than you, I win. Many years ago, I was involved in a … (View Post)

One of the issues with MRPs is that they are trying to predict what a voter will do by reference to the degree of similarity between that voter and others in the poll (including in relation to their … (View Post)

Depends on methodology of the individual pollster but, broadly, yes. I believe the YouGov one kicks off with a reminder of what the participant's constituency is, and asks about their vote in th… (View Post)