Definitely true that people overestimate the predictiveness of the last result and underestimate the one(s) before. I've mentioned before that, in 2012, Obama did better in the election than in … (View Post)

That is a picture of an incredibly stable race, with both candidates moving in their own narrow corridor of support. For all the drama of 2020 - the COVID crisis, the economic crisis, the Democratic … (View Post)

Have to say this feels like wishful thinking more than objective betting. The CNN poll yesterday is the only one that was within a whisker of 58% for Biden (albeit some include "don't know&… (View Post)

So the whole Sleepy Joe thing was just a big act, and it turns out he's actually King Herod? That's a turn up for the books, and no mistake. (View Post)

Amazing Nige can still fit his tongue up there, what with the UV lamp and bleach enema already inserted. (View Post)