"More Brits think they could beat a crocodile in a fight than think Kemi Badenoch will be PM after the next general election." Your best chance is if you can hold the jaw shut. And that… (View Post)

The Good Law Project have a pretty decent return in terms of wins. This is their spreadsheet, so you'd expect a bit of a bias towards claiming a win when a result is a bit more ambiguous, but it… (View Post)

They won't be exact (statistics are not) but are extremely unlikely to be systematically biased. I think you under-appreciate the work that goes into calculating growth figures (and many other e… (View Post)

I don't find Tim Montgomerie joining RefUK interesting at all. His whole career has been an attempt to get attention focused on Tim Montgomerie, and everything he does can be understood through … (View Post)

It says "eventually voters found them out", but ironically none of the three leaders mentioned (Trudeau, Sturgeon and Ardern) lost an election. They might well have gone on to do so, but th… (View Post)